USD/JPY stalls below 145 on tepid wage data – BBH

FXStreetJul 4, 2025 11:18 AM

USD/JPY is holding under key resistance at 145.00, BBH FX analysts report.

Japan’s pay gains hit 34-year high, but BoJ still patient

"Japan's largest labor union group, Rengo, secured a 5.25% average pay gain for 2025. That’s the highest level since 1991 and follows an average increase of 5.10% in 2024 and 3.58% in 2023. Still, the pay hike was more modest than the preliminary 5.46% reported in March and below the 6.09% increase members had sought."

"The Bank of Japan will not be rushing to resume raising rates, limiting JPY upside. The swaps market is pricing-in 60% odds of a 25bps rate hike by year-end and a total of 50bps of tightening to 1.00% over the next three years."

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