OpenAI IPO Reversal? SpaceX Surges 7%, AI Stocks Fully Recover, Analysts See No Need to Delay Listing

TradingKey - Although the rally in SpaceX and AI stocks has created a friendly external environment, pushing OpenAI to list this year as scheduled, its own losses remain a critical issue that cannot be ignored.

On June 29, Eastern Time, the recovery in the stock price of Elon Musk's space company SpaceX (SPCX) and a collective rally in AI stocks strengthened market expectations for OpenAI to go public this year. Among them, Bob Lang, an options analyst at Aztec Capital, LLC, believes that "current capital market demand for high-quality AI companies remains strong, and OpenAI has a window for an IPO."

According to data, SpaceX shares surged over 7%, breaking through $160 to close at $164.19, returning above its closing price on the first day of listing. In addition, the Nasdaq Composite rose over 2%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up nearly 4%. Among individual AI stocks, Marvell Technology ( MRVL) surged over 4%, AMD ( AMD) rose over 3%, NVIDIA ( NVDA) and Micron Technology ( MU) both rose over 1%.

SpaceX stock price chart, Source: TradingView

Last week, as SpaceX and AI stock prices suffered setbacks, the market generally believed that OpenAI's IPO would be postponed to next year, and sources related to OpenAI held a similar stance. According to The New York Times, citing three people involved in OpenAI's internal discussions, OpenAI leans toward delaying its IPO until next year because the company's CEO insists on a $1 trillion valuation, but recent capital market performance has been poor. Why is OpenAI's IPO affected by the performance of SpaceX and AI stock prices?

On June 12 of this year, SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history, with its market value surpassing $2.1 trillion on its first day of trading. The successful listing of this mega-giant directly created a funding squeeze on OpenAI. In response, Wall Street investment banks such as Goldman Sachs ( GS) and Morgan Stanley ( MS) warned that SpaceX's epic fundraising scale and cash-attracting power have already consumed a significant portion of the secondary market's available liquidity.

In addition, in late June, tech stocks in Japan, South Korea, and the US experienced sharp technical pullbacks due to the market's high levels, with typical examples including NVIDIA and Microsoft ( MSFT ), SoftBank, and Samsung Electronics. If the overall AI sector continues to pull back, it indicates that the market is deleveraging the "AI bubble," which would severely dent the valuation premium for OpenAI at its IPO, making a $1 trillion valuation uncertain. Conversely, only when AI stocks "fully recover" will the market reignite its frenzied pursuit of OpenAI.

However, even if SpaceX and AI stock prices remain strong, will OpenAI's IPO necessarily perform well? The answer is not necessarily, as OpenAI's losses are expanding. In the first quarter of 2026, OpenAI's net loss exceeded $21.3 billion, whereas it lost $38.5 billion in all of 2025—which is even more worrying compared to its full-year loss of $5.1 billion in 2024. OpenAI's "high-growth, high-burn" business model is not only difficult to attract investors but may even trigger concern and panic.