By FX, traders, near, recent and highs
BUDAPEST, July 1 (Reuters) - Central European currencies edged higher on Tuesday, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and interest rate differentials.
The dollar languished near a four-year low as markets awaited a vote on U.S. President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending legislation, while uncertainty around trade deals remained a drag on sentiment.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= was a touch stronger, up 0.12% to trade at 4.239 per euro, inching closer to its one-month high of 4.2350 hit at the end of last week.
Bank PKO BP analysts said they expected the zloty to consolidate near 4.24 to the euro until the National Bank of Poland's interest rate decision on Wednesday and the NBP governor's press conference on Thursday.
The central bank starts a two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, according to the forecast of a majority of respondents in a Reuters poll, as it waits for more data before any further easing.
Inflation in Poland was slightly higher than expected in June, official data showed on Monday, strengthening market expectations that the central bank will leave rates on hold.
"Yesterday's (CPI) number may be another reason for the National Bank of Poland to leave rates unchanged this week and, along with the discussion of next year's government budget, a reason for a hawkish press conference on Thursday," ING wrote.
On Monday, Poland priced two benchmark tranches of euro-denominated bonds worth 3 billion euros in total. The 7-year eurobonds, worth 1.75 billion euros, were priced at 75 basis points above mid-swap, while the 12-year green bonds, worth 1.25 billion euros, were priced at 120 basis points above mid-swap.
Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= firmed 0.11% to 399.15 to the euro, recouping some losses from the previous session as it inched back towards a 3-month high of 398.4 hit on Friday.
"The technical level around 398.40 was very strong, it kept the forint from further strengthening for the moment," an FX trader in Budapest said.
"But we expect the dollar to keep easing, which will help the forint along with the high central bank rate in the long term, so the forint could even firm some more later," the trader said.
Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= was up 0.09% and trading at 24.702 per euro.
Stocks in the region were mixed, with Budapest's equities .BUX edging up 0.02% while Warsaw's stocks .WIG20 were 0.38% higher. Prague's stock index .PX slid 0.32%.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1111 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 24.7040 | 24.7260 | +0.09% | +2.04% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 399.1500 | 399.6000 | +0.11% | +3.08% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2390 | 4.2440 | +0.12% | +0.89% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 5.0765 | 5.0798 | +0.07% | -1.97% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0500 | 117.1700 | +0.10% | -0.09% |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
| |||||
STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Prague | .PX | 2152.34 | 2157.3900 | -0.23% | +22.28% |
Budapest | .BUX | 97682.12 | 97667.46 | +0.02% | +23.14% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2856.27 | 2845.37 | +0.38% | +30.30% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18851.01 | 18735.57 | +0.62% | +12.74% |
| |||||
BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4870 | -0.0080 | +166bps | +2bps |
Czech Rep 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7610 | -0.0130 | +164bps | +3bps |
Czech Rep 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.2180 | -0.0120 | +167bps | +4bps |
Poland 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.5330 | 0.0170 | +271bps | +5bps |
Poland 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.8880 | -0.0910 | +277bps | -5bps |
Poland 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.4010 | -0.0700 | +285bps | -2bps |
| |||||
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | CZKFRA, PRIBOR= | 3.52 | 3.46 | 3.40 | 3.49 |
Poland | PLNFRA, WIBOR= | 4.79 | 4.39 | 4.05 | 5.23 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices |
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