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CORRECTED-CEE MARKETS-Currencies buoyed as U.S. dollar languishes near 4-year low

ReutersJul 1, 2025 9:46 AM

By FX, traders, near, recent and highs

- Central European currencies edged higher on Tuesday, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and interest rate differentials.

The dollar languished near a four-year low as markets awaited a vote on U.S. President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending legislation, while uncertainty around trade deals remained a drag on sentiment.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was a touch stronger, up 0.12% to trade at 4.239 per euro, inching closer to its one-month high of 4.2350 hit at the end of last week.

Bank PKO BP analysts said they expected the zloty to consolidate near 4.24 to the euro until the National Bank of Poland's interest rate decision on Wednesday and the NBP governor's press conference on Thursday.

The central bank starts a two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, according to the forecast of a majority of respondents in a Reuters poll, as it waits for more data before any further easing.

Inflation in Poland was slightly higher than expected in June, official data showed on Monday, strengthening market expectations that the central bank will leave rates on hold.

"Yesterday's (CPI) number may be another reason for the National Bank of Poland to leave rates unchanged this week and, along with the discussion of next year's government budget, a reason for a hawkish press conference on Thursday," ING wrote.

On Monday, Poland priced two benchmark tranches of euro-denominated bonds worth 3 billion euros in total. The 7-year eurobonds, worth 1.75 billion euros, were priced at 75 basis points above mid-swap, while the 12-year green bonds, worth 1.25 billion euros, were priced at 120 basis points above mid-swap.

Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= firmed 0.11% to 399.15 to the euro, recouping some losses from the previous session as it inched back towards a 3-month high of 398.4 hit on Friday.

"The technical level around 398.40 was very strong, it kept the forint from further strengthening for the moment," an FX trader in Budapest said.

"But we expect the dollar to keep easing, which will help the forint along with the high central bank rate in the long term, so the forint could even firm some more later," the trader said.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= was up 0.09% and trading at 24.702 per euro.

Stocks in the region were mixed, with Budapest's equities .BUX edging up 0.02% while Warsaw's stocks .WIG20 were 0.38% higher. Prague's stock index .PX slid 0.32%.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1111 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.7040

24.7260

+0.09%

+2.04%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

399.1500

399.6000

+0.11%

+3.08%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2390

4.2440

+0.12%

+0.89%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0765

5.0798

+0.07%

-1.97%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0500

117.1700

+0.10%

-0.09%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2152.34

2157.3900

-0.23%

+22.28%

Budapest

.BUX

97682.12

97667.46

+0.02%

+23.14%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2856.27

2845.37

+0.38%

+30.30%

Bucharest

.BETI

18851.01

18735.57

+0.62%

+12.74%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4870

-0.0080

+166bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7610

-0.0130

+164bps

+3bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.2180

-0.0120

+167bps

+4bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.5330

0.0170

+271bps

+5bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8880

-0.0910

+277bps

-5bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4010

-0.0700

+285bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.52

3.46

3.40

3.49

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.79

4.39

4.05

5.23

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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