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CEE MARKETS-Currencies and stocks stronger after Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire

ReutersJun 24, 2025 8:37 AM

- Central European currencies firmed while most stocks also rose after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran, while investors also turned their attention towards a central bank rate meeting in Hungary.

Global stocks rallied and the dollar fell after Trump announced an end to the Israel-Iran conflict, in news that sparked a risk rally and a sharp drop in oil prices.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= rose 0.42% to trade at 402.55 per euro, as it continued to recover from the previous session when it dipped as far as 404.5 on a global risk-off mood.

Investors are now looking to the central bank's meeting where a Reuters poll of analysts indicates the base rate will remain at 6.5% for the ninth time.

The central bank is scheduled to publish its decision at 1200 GMT, with a statement and press briefing to follow at 1300 GMT.

"A steady base rate is widely anticipated for today, and while this is certainly positive compared to alternatives involving rate cuts, it falls short, in our view, of creating downside protection for the exchange rate," Commerzbank wrote in a note.

"Without a convincing reaction function of the MNB – one that includes the possibility of rate hikes – HUF remains vulnerable to being tested," they said.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= was a touch stronger, up 0.11%, trading at 24.817 to the euro.

The Czech National Bank is scheduled to hold its rate meeting on Wednesday where no change to the main rate is expected.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= added 0.34% to trade at 4.2655 per euro.

"The increase in global risk appetite and the decline in oil prices after the announcement of the truce in the Middle East should support further appreciation of the zloty," PKO BP wrote.

Warsaw's stock index .WIG20 rose 1.4% on the day as shares in Polish protective clothing maker Arlen Group ARL1.WA rose 10% on their stock market debut, increasing the company's valuation to 852.1 million zlotys ($231.6 million) from 775 million.

Budapest's stocks .BUX gained 1.3% while Prague's equities .PX were 0.5% higher. Bucharest's index .BETI slid 0.3%.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1005 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.8170

24.8450

+0.11%

+1.58%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

402.5500

404.2500

+0.42%

+2.20%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2655

4.2800

+0.34%

+0.26%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0475

5.0476

+0.00%

-1.41%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1600

117.2200

+0.05%

-0.18%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2136.58

2126.6800

+0.47%

+21.38%

Budapest

.BUX

98405.16

97181.78

+1.26%

+24.05%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2729.63

2691.54

+1.42%

+24.53%

Bucharest

.BETI

18550.72

18602.45

-0.28%

+10.94%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5630

0.0660

+173bps

+7bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7740

-0.0310

+166bps

-4bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.5710

-0.0340

+274bps

-3bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.0940

-0.1070

+298bps

-11bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.5620

-0.0870

+304bps

-10bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.49

3.41

3.38

3.51

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.86

4.44

4.14

5.21

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

($1 = 3.6787 zlotys)

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