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CEE MARKETS-Forint near two-week low before Hungary rate meeting

ReutersMay 27, 2025 9:43 AM

- The forint eased to a nearly two-week low on Tuesday before a meeting of Hungary's central bank, expected to hold interest rates unchanged for an eighth straight meeting as inflation risks outweigh growth worries.

Elsewhere Central European shares were mostly stronger, gaining with European peers as large U.S. tariffs on EU goods were delayed until July.

But currencies stayed on weaker footing, with the Czech crown EURCZK= down a touch at 24.900 per euro, hovering near an 11-month low hit last week.

The Polish zloty lacked momentum amid uncertainty before a run-off presidential vote on Sunday, which is pitting liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski against nationalist Karol Nawrocki.

The zloty EURPLN= inched 0.1% down to 4.2475 per euro, while Romania's leu was steady at 5.0626 to the euro.

The Romanian currency had fallen sharply this month when a nationalist candidate gained a strong showing in the country's own presidential vote, raising fiscal concerns. While a centrist candidate won in the end, the leu has yet to regain its lost ground.

"The technical situation for the EUR/PLN exchange rate suggests that we may soon see a correction towards 4.27-4.30, which may be supported by uncertainty related to the second round of the presidential elections," Bank Millennium said.

In Hungary, eyes were on the central bank as well as European Union ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss Hungarian rule of law concerns.

The forint EURHUF= was 0.2% down at 404.40 per euro as analysts widely expected interest rates to stay at 6.50%, with rate-setters seeking to cut inflation with an economic recovery weaker than expected.

A Reuters poll's median projection is for the base rate to inch down to 6.25% by the end of 2025 as the bank keeps a hawkish bent in the face of market risks.

"There is no question that Hungarian inflation is the most stubborn in CE3 and, crucially, it is susceptible to re-accelerating via FX pass-through from a weakening forint," Commerzbank said, referring to the three biggest economies in the region.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1110 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.9000

24.8620

-0.15%

+1.24%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

404.4000

403.6500

-0.19%

+1.74%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2475

4.2430

-0.11%

+0.69%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0626

5.0671

+0.09%

-1.70%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1700

117.2500

+0.07%

-0.19%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2167.79

2160.1600

+0.35%

+23.16%

Budapest

.BUX

96415.68

96059.90

+0.37%

+21.54%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2795.15

2792.00

+0.11%

+27.52%

Bucharest

.BETI

17841.51

17736.34

+0.59%

+6.70%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4050

0.0050

+163bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6470

0.0060

+158bps

+4bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.1800

-0.0130

+166bps

+3bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.5980

-0.0210

+282bps

-1bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.0870

-0.0150

+302bps

+2bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.5290

-0.0490

+301bps

-1bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.38

3.25

3.12

3.51

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.82

4.40

4.06

5.22

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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