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CEE MARKETS-FX mixed as investors await Hungary central bank meeting, Polish vote

ReutersMay 26, 2025 9:26 AM

- Central European currencies were mixed on Monday, mostly shrugging off U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to postpone threatened 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union.

The euro rallied against the dollar and European shares surged after a restored July 9 deadline to allow for talks between Washington and the 27-nation bloc to produce a deal.

Hungary's forint EURHUF= was a touch weaker, down 0.14% on the day versus the euro and trading at 403.95 per euro.

"The Trump announcement moved the euro-dollar rate, but it was not news for the forint. I guess the market now reacts to Trump's news when something is signed, because announcements are easy to withdraw," an FX trader in Budapest said.

Investors also eyed a rate-setting meeting of the National Bank of Hungary scheduled for Tuesday.

A Reuters poll showed analysts expect the base rate to be held at 6.5% for the eighth time as the central bank tries to cut inflation amid a weaker than anticipated economic recovery.

Central Bank Governor Mihaly Varga said on Thursday that inflation expectations must be anchored in order for the bank to reach its inflation target in a sustainable manner, adding the fight against inflation is "not yet over".

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= firmed 0.14% to trade at 4.2515 versus the euro as data showed that retail sales were up 7.6% year-on-year in April, above forecast.

"Trump's announcement to postpone the entry into force of additional tariffs on EU imports until July 9 may also improve market sentiment," Bank Millennium analysts wrote in a note.

"On the other hand, the technical situation for the EURPLN exchange rate suggests that we may soon see a correction towards 4.26, which may be supported by uncertainty related to the second round of the (Polish) presidential elections," they said.

Poland holds the runoff vote on Sunday. Both the zloty and Polish stocks suffered some losses last week after a tighter than expected first-round win for liberal frontrunner Rafal Trzaskowski over nationalist Karol Nawrocki.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was unmoved. The Romanian leu EURRON= eased 0.12% versus the euro and was trading at 5.0599, staying on the weaker side of 5.00.

Warsaw's stocks .WIG20 led gains the region as they added 1.8%. Budapest .BUX was 0.7% higher, while Bucharest's .BETI stocks were up 1.2%. Prague .PX bucked the trend, dipping 0.2%.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1058 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.8730

24.8740

+0.00%

+1.35%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

403.9500

403.4000

-0.14%

+1.85%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2515

4.2575

+0.14%

+0.60%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0599

5.0540

-0.12%

-1.65%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1700

117.2200

+0.04%

-0.19%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2164.55

2168.1700

-0.17%

+22.97%

Budapest

.BUX

96068.07

95426.77

+0.67%

+21.10%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2765.72

2716.88

+1.80%

+26.17%

Bucharest

.BETI

17709.61

17497.04

+1.21%

+5.91%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4060

0.0180

+161bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6470

0.0040

+152bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.1890

0.0010

+160bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.6410

0.0140

+285bps

-2bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.1390

0.0330

+301bps

+1bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.5790

0.0120

+299bps

-1bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.38

3.26

3.13

3.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.81

4.40

4.09

5.22

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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