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FOREX-Dollar falls after US credit downgrade, trade tensions weigh

ReutersMay 19, 2025 12:08 PM
  • Dollar dips to ten-day low vs yen as traders weigh U.S. outlook
  • U.S. trade tensions simmer, FT reports thaw with EU
  • Bessent warns of April 2 tariff levels for nations that don't negotiate "in good faith"
  • UK-EU defence and trade ties 'reset'

By Rocky Swift, Kevin Buckland and Lucy Raitano

- The U.S. dollar fell against a range of currencies on Monday, slipping to a ten-day low versus the safe-haven yen as markets digested a surprise downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating while trade tensions also brought the mood down.

Moody's cut the United States' top sovereign credit rating by one notch on Friday, the last of the major ratings agencies to downgrade the country, citing concerns about its growing $36 trillion debt pile.

The news saw the dollar lose ground against its major rivals following four straight winning weeks when it was boosted by rising optimism for U.S. trade deals and then a thaw in relations with China that eased fears of a global recession.

"It looks like the dollar is facing a new round of short building after Friday’s downgrade by Moody’s. S&P500 futures down -1.2% and Treasuries are under pressure: it’s a textbook 'sell America' session in markets," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING.

The greenback slipped as much as 0.7% to 144.665 yen JPY=EBS - its lowest level since the first time since May 8 on Monday, meanwhile the euro EUR=EBS was 0.73% higher at $1.1247.

Sterling GBP=D3 added 0.79% to $1.33850 versus the weaker dollar, rising to its highest level since April 30 as Britain agreed the most significant reset of defence and trade ties with the European Union since Brexit on Monday.

S&P 500 futures were off 1.1%, on track to underperform European equities with the STOXX 600 .STOXX last down 0.6%, while U.S 10-year treasuries rose 11.5bps to 4.5545%.

"It comes at an awkward time for the administration as it tries to get a budget through Congress by early July. It raises further legitimate questions over the deficit, safe haven status of Treasuries and the dollar," said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research for FX and rates at Societe Generale.

"Today is a reminder of the fragility of the dollar," he said.

China on Monday called on the United States to take responsible policy measures to maintain the stability of the international financial and economic system and safeguard the interests of investors.

It follows U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying in television interviews on Sunday that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs at the rate he threatened last month on trading partners that do not negotiate in "good faith."

However, a Financial Times report that the United States had begun serious trade talks with the European Union, breaking a long deadlock, offered some hope for additional deals after Washington inked a framework agreement with Britain earlier this month.

Trump has previously said he has potential deals with India, Japan and South Korea as well, although talks with Tokyo seem to be stumbling over car tariffs.

In the market, "there's a lot of complacency about the ability to pull off deals," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

"Confidence that the U.S. economy is going to weather this is very much open to question."

Elsewhere, Trump cleared a hurdle towards passing a sweeping tax cut bill that would add an estimated $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the nation's debt over the next decade, after winning approval from a key congressional committee.

The dollar declined 0.41% to 0.833390 Swiss franc CHF=EBS, another safe-haven currency.

"The focus on U.S. growth risks and the U.S. administration's policy agenda may have put the U.S. safe-haven status in question," said Mahjabeen Zaman, head of foreign exchange research at ANZ.

Australia's dollar AUD=D3 was up 0.66% to $0.64460 following three days of declines ahead of Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia policy announcement, with a quarter-point cut widely expected.

New Zealand's kiwi dollar rose 0.6% to $0.59145 NZD=D3.

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