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Dollar firmer but safe-havens set for stellar monthly rises as tariff worries persist

ReutersApr 30, 2025 9:12 AM
  • Dollar lifts slightly after latest Trump tariff back-track
  • Euro set for strongest monthly performance since November 2022
  • Yen steady ahead of BOJ policy decision
  • Investors await US advance GDP data

London, April 30 (Reuters) - The dollar was firmer on Wednesday but remained on track for its weakest monthly performance since November 2022, as perceived safe havens headed for monthly gains amid worries about U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump.

The euro EUR=EBS was slightly weaker at $1.1372 after dropping 0.33% in the previous session. Even so, it has benefited from investors fleeing U.S. assets and was up more than 5% in April, on course for its best monthly performance since November 2022.

Data releases on Wednesday showed Germany's gross domestic product rose in line with forecasts while France's annual inflation rate was above forecast in April and French GDP was up slightly.

They failed to move the dial with attention firmly on U.S. GDP due later in the session and nonfarm payrolls due Friday for a clearer steer on the outlook for the world's largest economy.

The White House has retreated several times on the sweeping tariffs Trump unveiled in early April that led to a global stock market meltdown and prompted investors to flee the normally safe-haven U.S. dollar and Treasury debt.

"We've reached a level in the U.S. dollar where the market is getting more cautious about further dollar weakness ... until we get further messages ... it's a little hard to assess," Commerzbank FX analyst Michael Pfister said.

Trump signed a pair of orders on Tuesday to soften the blow of his auto tariffs with a mix of credits and relief from other levies on materials. Trump's trade team also touted its first deal with a foreign trading partner.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is making progress on tariff negotiations, noting that deals are forthcoming with India and South Korea.

The developments helped ease some tensions as investors and companies worry about the economic fallout of the tariffs, with indications the duties will weigh on growth and could drive up inflation and unemployment.

"We estimate 'peak tariff' has passed," Kristina Clifton, an economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said. "However, damage has been done to confidence, the U.S. economy and the global trading system."

The Swiss franc CHF=D3 was last down 0.3% to 0.8258 per dollar but was on course for a rise of 6.9% for the month, its strongest performance in more than a decade.

The yen JPY=EBS weakened a bit to 142.82 per dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy decision on Thursday where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The yen has risen almost 5% against the dollar in April, its strongest monthly performance since last July.

Investors remain worried about the tariff impact after data on Tuesday showed a gradually declining U.S. economy. Job openings dropped sharply in March, but a drop in layoffs suggested the labour market remained on solid footing.

The Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index, though, sank to a nearly five-year low in April. Companies across the world are already showing signs of strain as delivery giant UPS UPS.N unveiled 20,000 job cuts while General Motors GM.N pulled its outlook.

The spotlight will now be on the advance GDP estimate for the January-March quarter due on Wednesday, which will coincide with Trump's 100 days in office.

"The market wants to understand what was the base line before the tariffs even started," Commerzbank's Pfister sais.

A Reuters survey of economists forecast GDP likely increased at a 0.3% annualized rate last quarter, which would be the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2022.

But the survey was concluded before data on Tuesday showed the goods trade deficit surged to an all-time high in March amid record imports, which prompted economists to sharply downgrade their GDP estimates.

"Clearly, importers have been trying to get as many products into the country as they can before tariffs hit, with the result set to be a huge drag on GDP growth in Q1 2025," ING economists said in a note.

Also in focus will be the report on U.S. personal consumption expenditure, the Federal Reserve's favourite gauge of inflation, scheduled for release later in the day.

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 was 0.1% stronger at $0.6389. Elsewhere, Sterling last fetched $1.3375, on course for 3.5% rise in April, its strongest monthly performance since November 2023.

China's yuan inched lower against the dollar on Wednesday and looked set to post a loss for the month, as early signs of damage on the broader economy from higher U.S. tariffs start to emerge.

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