FACTBOX-Brokerages lower Southeast Asia's 2025 economic growth forecast
April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's back-and-forth tariff policies have triggered a flurry of economic growth downgrades for trade-dependent Southeast Asian countries, issued by both brokerage firms and some of the nations themselves.
Singapore on Monday lowered its growth forecast for 2025 to a range of 0% to 2%, down from the earlier estimate of 1% to 3%. Indonesia, the region's biggest economy, has also warned that its 2025 growth could take a hit of up to 0.5 percentage points.
Strategists and economists are struggling to keep their financial models up-to-date with Trump's ever-changing policies. Here is a look at their current view on Southeast Asia's growth and their year-end predictions for currencies against the U.S. dollar:
2025 GROWTH (previous estimates in bracket) | |||||
BARCLAYS | OCBC* | CITIGROUP | DBS | GOLDMAN SACHS | |
INDONESIA | 4.8% (4.9%) | 4.7% (4.9%) | 5.0% (5.0%) | 5.0% (5.0%) | 4.7% (4.8%) |
THAILAND | 2.0% (2.5%) | 2% (2.8%) | 3.0% (3.0%) | 2.6% (2.6%) | 1.5% (2.4%) |
MALAYSIA | 3.5% (3.7%) | 4.3% (4.5%) | 4.3% (5%) | 4.80% (4.80%) | 3.8% (4.5%) |
SINGAPORE | 1.7% (2.0%) | 2.1% (2.2%) | 2% (vs 2.8%) | 2% (2.80%) | 2.4% (2.8%) |
PHILIPPINES | 5.5% (5.7%) | 5.9% (6.0%) | 5.80% (5.80%) | 5.7% (5.9%) | |
VIETNAM | 5.0% (6.2%) | 6.8% (6.8%) | 5.6% (6.8%) | ||
YEAR-END CURRENCY VIEW (against U.S. Dollar) | |||
BARCLAYS | OCBC* | LATEST CLOSE | |
Indonesian rupiah | 17,000 | 17,050 | 16,770 |
Thailand baht | 35.20 | 34.30 | 33.46 |
Malaysian ringgit | 4.60 | 4.48 | 4.415 |
Singapore dollar | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.314 |
Philippine peso | 59.00 | 57.50 | 57.052 |
Vietnam dong | 25,900 | 25,821 | |
* Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp
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