CEE MARKETS-Zloty edges lower after CPI surprise, as US tariffs loom

WARSAW, March 31 (Reuters) - The zloty eased slightly on Monday but remained in a firm range, after inflation data showed price growth stalling at a lower- than-expected level, while markets eyed U.S. trade tariffs.

Markets are wary ahead of a new round of reciprocal levies that the White House is due to announce on Wednesday. Details are scarce, but U.S. President Donald Trump said late on Sunday that essentially all countries will be slapped with duties.

"Given the noise around tariffs last week and this week, global developments in the coming days will be the main driver (for Central Eastern European currencies," ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky said in a note on Central Eastern European currencies.

"However, unless tariff headlines surprise in a significantly negative way, we prefer to stay on the bullish side this week for CEE currencies..."

Poland's zloty EURPLN= edged 0.1% lower against the euro to 4.1840, as of 0911 GMT, continuing to trade within its recent strong range off of its highest level since 2015 hit last month.

A March flash inflation reading on Monday showed Polish consumer prices growing less than expected and remaining at 4.9% in annual terms since January.

The National Bank of Poland's (NBP) inflation target is 2.5%, with a tolerance band of plus or minus one percentage point.

The NBP is expected to keep its main interest rate steady at 5.75% on Wednesday, according to all respondents in Reuters poll, extending its pause since autumn 2023, though some see the possibility of a central banker putting forth the first motion for easing since October 2023.

"The data published today do not fundamentally affect expectations regarding the MPC's decisions in the coming months, although, combined with the previously published data on lower than expected wage and retail sales growth, they strengthen supporters of monetary policy easing," Bank Millennium Chief economist Grzegorz Maliszewski said.

Most economists in a Reuters long-term poll expect the NBP to resume rate cuts in the third quarter.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= gained 0.2% against the euro to 401.90, pulling back from a four-week low of 403.65 hit last week, but remained on the weaker side of the key psychological level of 400.

Last week, Hungary said it would raise the mandatory government bond holding levels for investment funds, causing uncertainty in markets.

Data showed on Monday Hungary's January gross wage growth and February producer price inflation slowing, while the country's foreign trade surplus grew last month.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was flat at 24.96.

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