tradingkey.logo

CEE MARKETS-Currencies show limited reaction to Trump trade war escalation

ReutersMar 27, 2025 11:20 AM

- Central Europe's currencies eased on Thursday, coming off recent highs but showing a muted response to U.S. plans for a 25% tariff on vehicles not built in the United States.

Stocks took the brunt of the impact of President Donald Trump's announcement on Wednesday, which escalated a global trade war and hammered stocks, although the main indices in Central Europe stabilised off session lows by mid-morning.

Among currencies, the crown retreated from a nine-month high hit on Wednesday after the Czech central bank paused its interest rate-cutting campaign as expected, and detailed inflationary risks - including trade wars - that Governor Ales Michl said could cause one-off price increases.

He spoke before Trump followed through on weeks of threats for new tariffs on imported cars.

Currencies appeared to take the news in stride on Thursday, with the crown EURCZK= down just 0.3% versus Wednesday's local close, at 24.939 to the euro at 1041 GMT.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= also eased 0.3% to 4.197 per euro, holding in a recent range off 10-year highs hit at the end of February.

"The market reaction is quite limited," Polish group Bank Millennium said.

Central Europe's economies rely to a major extent on trade with Germany, the continent's largest and a major exporter of automotive products to the United States.

Following a string of U.S. tariff announcements in recent weeks, some analysts perceive fatigue behind the muted reaction in currencies so far, with policymakers still gauging the impact of escalating trade war risks.

The Czech central bank said on Wednesday that while trade wars could ignite higher inflation, especially in the short-term, they could also lead to a global economic slowdown in the longer term.

Markets continue to price in chances of a further Czech interest rate at the bank's next meeting in May.

On Thursday, Hungary's central bank said in its quarterly inflation report that stronger trade barriers such as tariffs could dampen economic growth and accelerate inflation.

Hungary's forint EURHUF= inched 0.1% lower to 400.95 to the euro.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1141 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.9390

24.8550

-0.34%

+1.08%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

400.9500

400.4500

-0.12%

+2.61%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.1970

4.1840

-0.31%

+1.90%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9770

4.9770

+0.00%

-0.01%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1200

117.2100

+0.08%

-0.15%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2137.67

2137.5800

+0.00%

+21.45%

Budapest

.BUX

92144.64

92221.62

-0.08%

+16.16%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2765.41

2769.17

-0.14%

+26.16%

Bucharest

.BETI

17474.14

17438.31

+0.21%

+4.51%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3980

0.0140

+131bps

+4bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8340

0.0050

+145bps

+3bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.3340

0.0070

+155bps

+2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.1220

0.0110

+303bps

+4bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.5150

0.0180

+313bps

+4bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8460

-0.0040

+307bps

+1bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.54

3.47

3.39

3.72

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

7.07

7.06

6.84

6.51

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.63

5.10

4.72

5.86

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
Tradingkey

Related Articles

Tradingkey
KeyAI