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CEE MARKETS-Currencies little changed ahead of Putin-Trump call outcome

ReutersMar 18, 2025 11:14 AM

- The Hungarian forint fell slightly after setting a fresh multi-month high on Tuesday, as investors eyed U.S.-Russian talks on Ukraine and the dollar traded at its weakest to the euro since early November.

U.S. President Donald Trump will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to convince the latter to accept a ceasefire in Russia's war with Ukraine and move toward a more permanent end to the three-year conflict.

Analysts see a potential end to the fighting as a boon to Central European economies.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= edged 0.1% lower against the euro to 398.00, after setting a 5-1/2 month high of 397.60 in early trading.

Analysts at MBH Bank said that besides macroeconomic data from core markets, investors would be paying attention to the planned Trump-Putin phone call.

"The dollar is weakening somewhat and that is helping the forint, but it is obvious that the 398 level is very strong... It feels like everyone is waiting for a new trigger that will push the rate in one of the two directions," a Budapest-based trader said.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= firmed 0.1% to 4.18 per euro, staying within a narrow range off of its strongest level since 2015 hit in late February.

According to PKO BP analysts, the outcome of talks between Trump and Putin was a key driver, as market expectations for an end to the war in Ukraine grow.

"In the case of positive decisions for the negotiation process, the EUR/PLN exchange rate could, in our opinion, head towards 4.15-4.16, while the failure of this talk could result in pressure on PLN and, as a result, a test of technical resistance at 4.20."

One Polish central banker was quoted on Tuesday as saying that a discussion on cutting interest rates was possible this year, while another said a motion for easing could even happen before July.

The National Bank of Poland last week kept its main interest rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending the pause since October 2023.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= eased 0.1% to 25.07 per euro, on the weaker side of the key 25 level.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1124 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0700

25.0580

-0.05%

+0.55%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

398.0000

397.8000

-0.05%

+3.37%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.1800

4.1835

+0.08%

+2.32%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9775

4.9780

+0.01%

-0.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1300

117.2000

+0.06%

-0.15%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2082.90

2082.5200

+0.02%

+18.34%

Budapest

.BUX

89307.53

89265.59

+0.05%

+12.58%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2800.94

2777.61

+0.84%

+27.78%

Bucharest

.BETI

17427.41

17399.35

+0.16%

+4.23%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4110

-0.0010

+121bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8170

-0.0030

+133bps

-4bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.2420

0.0260

+140bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.2050

-0.0040

+301bps

-2bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.5320

-0.0290

+304bps

-6bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8920

-0.0210

+305bps

-6bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.54

3.40

3.29

3.71

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.70

6.67

6.32

6.51

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.71

5.18

4.79

5.85

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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