WARSAW, March 18 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint fell slightly after setting a fresh multi-month high on Tuesday, as investors eyed U.S.-Russian talks on Ukraine and the dollar traded at its weakest to the euro since early November.
U.S. President Donald Trump will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to convince the latter to accept a ceasefire in Russia's war with Ukraine and move toward a more permanent end to the three-year conflict.
Analysts see a potential end to the fighting as a boon to Central European economies.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= edged 0.1% lower against the euro to 398.00, after setting a 5-1/2 month high of 397.60 in early trading.
Analysts at MBH Bank said that besides macroeconomic data from core markets, investors would be paying attention to the planned Trump-Putin phone call.
"The dollar is weakening somewhat and that is helping the forint, but it is obvious that the 398 level is very strong... It feels like everyone is waiting for a new trigger that will push the rate in one of the two directions," a Budapest-based trader said.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= firmed 0.1% to 4.18 per euro, staying within a narrow range off of its strongest level since 2015 hit in late February.
According to PKO BP analysts, the outcome of talks between Trump and Putin was a key driver, as market expectations for an end to the war in Ukraine grow.
"In the case of positive decisions for the negotiation process, the EUR/PLN exchange rate could, in our opinion, head towards 4.15-4.16, while the failure of this talk could result in pressure on PLN and, as a result, a test of technical resistance at 4.20."
One Polish central banker was quoted on Tuesday as saying that a discussion on cutting interest rates was possible this year, while another said a motion for easing could even happen before July.
The National Bank of Poland last week kept its main interest rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending the pause since October 2023.
Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= eased 0.1% to 25.07 per euro, on the weaker side of the key 25 level.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1124 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0700 | 25.0580 | -0.05% | +0.55% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 398.0000 | 397.8000 | -0.05% | +3.37% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.1800 | 4.1835 | +0.08% | +2.32% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9775 | 4.9780 | +0.01% | -0.02% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.1300 | 117.2000 | +0.06% | -0.15% |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
| |||||
STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Prague | .PX | 2082.90 | 2082.5200 | +0.02% | +18.34% |
Budapest | .BUX | 89307.53 | 89265.59 | +0.05% | +12.58% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2800.94 | 2777.61 | +0.84% | +27.78% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17427.41 | 17399.35 | +0.16% | +4.23% |
| |||||
BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4110 | -0.0010 | +121bps | -2bps |
Czech Rep 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.8170 | -0.0030 | +133bps | -4bps |
Czech Rep 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.2420 | 0.0260 | +140bps | -2bps |
Poland 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.2050 | -0.0040 | +301bps | -2bps |
Poland 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.5320 | -0.0290 | +304bps | -6bps |
Poland 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.8920 | -0.0210 | +305bps | -6bps |
| |||||
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | CZKFRA, PRIBOR= | 3.54 | 3.40 | 3.29 | 3.71 |
Hungary | HUFFRA, BUBOR= | 6.70 | 6.67 | 6.32 | 6.51 |
Poland | PLNFRA, WIBOR= | 5.71 | 5.18 | 4.79 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices |
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