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COMMENT-US recap:EUR/USD rises after soft U.S. jobs data

ReutersMar 7, 2025 7:18 PM

- The dollar index dipped to a four-month low on Friday after data showed the U.S added fewer jobs than expected in February, but it pared its loss following comments from various Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell.

The soft employment report did not significantly shift expectations for Fed cuts later this year with most anticipating weaker jobs numbers lie ahead.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 151,000, below the 160,000 increase forecast and the January payrolls increase was revised down by. 18,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%.

Feds Chair Jerome Powell told a business school forum that the U.S economy was in a good place despite elevated uncertainty, downplayed labor's impact on inflation and said the central bank does not need to be in a hurry to adjust interest rates.

Earlier, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said that inflation risks argue for an extended period of steady central bank interest rate policy.

President Donald Trump raised the prospect of imposing large-scale U.S. sanctions on Russia, days after pausing aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine, and called on both countries to get on with negotiating a peace deal. He also warned that reciprocal tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber could be imposed as early as Friday and that Europe has been a terrible abuser of tariffs.

The euro held broad gains, fueled by ongoing optimism about Germany’s spending proposal and upbeat data.

Euro zone Q4 GDP growth was revised upward to 1.2% year-on-year.

European Central Bank policymaker Mario Centeno said the euro zone is "almost out of the woods" in the inflationary cycle.

Dip buying EUR/USD appears to be the market's preference as long as the associated economies are heading in different directions, though the pair is currently overbought.

The November 5 EUR/USD high at 1.0936, U.S. election day, is nearby resistance while 200-day moving average of 1.0721 lends support on any pullback. Developments around Ukraine peace talks and German inflation will be eyed next week.

Separately, Germany's Alternative for Germany party will file a complaint to the constitutional court next week over plans to raise new debt through a special fund.

GBP/USD rose 0.2% though EUR/GBP buying limited the pound’s advance. The cross reached it highest level in over a month after eclipsing its 200-day moving average at 0.8382. Cable swings may be mostly linked to moves in the greenback next week until U.K. GDP data on Friday.

USD/JPY reversed session losses amid short-covering following Powell's comments.

The pair dipped to a five-month low of 146.94 after the U.S. jobs report, nearly matching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its rise from September to January. The start of next week includes Japan trade and wage data. Trade Minister Yoji Muto is also scheduled to visit counterparts in Washington. The December 3 low at 148.65 needs to be breached to neutralize bearish momentum.

Treasury yields rose 3 to 4 basis points. The 2s-10s curve was up about 1 basis point at +30.5bp.

The S&P 500 rose 0.41% after being sharply lower earlier.

Oil was up 1%.

Gold eased 0.15% while concerns about China growth sent copper down 1.95%

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +0.51%, USD/JPY +0.01%, GBP/USD +0.23%, AUD/USD -0.51%, =USD -0.31%, EUR/JPY +0.56%, GBP/JPY +0.27%, AUD/JPY -0.47%.

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