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BUZZ-COMMENT-What's the yen got going for it?

ReutersMar 3, 2025 4:22 PM

Yen bulls are likely to remain optimistic as long as the currency offers a haven for investors worried about the potential for U.S. growth to deteriorate.

USD/JPY and Treasury yields have dipped following an ISM report indicating stagnation in the U.S. manufacturing sector, reaffirming the yen' status as a haven for investors wary of a U.S. economic slowdown.

However, the yen's potential for near-term gains might be constrained. Weekly CFTC data reveals that net long yen positions are already at a record high, though recent changes in open interest suggest some trimming of positions.

The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff deadline on Tuesday and events later this week is likely to keep USD/JPY above its Feb. 24 high of 149.86. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak at the IMF on Wednesday, followed by the release of February's U.S. jobs report on Friday.

In the longer term, yen bullishness is expected to persist as long as the BOJ continues its tightening policy and the yen's haven status remains strong.

Net positioning has been driven by waves of yen buying since mid-January, with increasing expectations of BOJ tightening.

Asset managers have been net long on the yen since Feb. 4, while leveraged accounts have been more cautious. These positions are unlikely to face a short-covering rally USD/JPY unless the currency pair approaches its Feb. 19 high of 152.31 or its Feb. 12 high of 154.79. Unless USD/JPY moves above 152, market participants might be expected to fade rallies.


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