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CEE MARKETS-Currencies hover off highs as rally pauses

ReutersFeb 27, 2025 10:17 AM

- Central European currencies settled off of multi-year or multi-month highs on Thursday, with dollar gains cooling a rally after vague pledges from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Europe.

The Polish zloty, Hungarian forint and Czech crown have all firmed past key levels this week amid talks on a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and a German election result that boosted hopes of an economic recovery to help the region's export-reliant manufacturing.

Markets shifted partly into a wait-and-see mood after Trump floated the idea on Wednesday of a 25% "reciprocal" tariff on European cars and other goods.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= was off a seven-year high of 4.132 to the euro hit this week and trading 0.1% lower at 4.14 by 0928 GMT.

ING analysts said Poland had less exposure to U.S. markets and the German economy - Europe's main driver - than peers although risks of a zloty retreat remained.

"The market continues to play for PLN strengthening in connection with expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine," ING said.

"Breaking 4.1350/EUR may be a signal for further PLN strengthening ... On the other hand, after the significant strengthening of the PLN since the beginning of the year, the risk of profit taking and a correction ... is growing."

The forint EURHUF= weakened 0.1% to 399.60 to the euro, but held on the strong side of the 400 level and near four-month highs.

The forint got a lift after the Hungarian central bank left its base rate steady on Tuesday for a fifth month straight at the European Union's joint-highest 6.5% level and signalled its inflation outlook this year was shifting higher.

Commerzbank said in the longer term, factors like re-accelerating inflation, a new central bank governor who markets perceive as potentially dovish and the continued blocking of European Union funds could hinder the forint.

"While we find the current rally in HUF consistent with broader market developments, for all the above reasons, we see EUR-HUF trading higher near the 417.0 level by the end of 2025," Commerzbank wrote in a note.

The crown EURCZK= also retreated from an eight-month high hit this week but hovered past the psychological 25 per euro level at 24.958. The Romanian leu EURRON= was steady at 4.9774 per euro, and stock markets in the region extended gains.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1028 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.9580

24.9300

-0.11%

+1.01%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

399.6000

399.1000

-0.13%

+2.96%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.1400

4.1360

-0.10%

+3.30%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9774

4.9775

+0.00%

-0.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1000

117.2000

+0.09%

-0.13%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2012.09

2009.0300

+0.15%

+14.31%

Budapest

.BUX

87833.89

87725.81

+0.12%

+10.72%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2629.25

2620.35

+0.34%

+19.95%

Bucharest

.BETI

17632.42

17659.65

-0.15%

+5.45%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4420

-0.0200

+138bps

-1bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6890

-0.0100

+150bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0630

-0.0120

+162bps

-1bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.2450

-0.0130

+318bps

-1bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.5720

-0.0340

+338bps

-2bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8300

-0.0270

+339bps

-3bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.61

3.47

3.37

3.73

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.98

6.82

6.56

6.51

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.78

5.39

4.96

5.87

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
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