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CEE MARKETS-Currencies steady as markets eye Trump's steps on Ukraine

ReutersFeb 20, 2025 10:27 AM

By Anita Komuves

- Central European currencies treaded water on Thursday, with the forint and the zloty both hovering near recent highs, as investors focussed on U.S. President Donald Trump's next steps on the Ukraine-Russia war.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was unchanged, trading at 402.7 after easing in the previous session in a correction, turning back from 400.6, near its 200-day moving average where it firmed on Tuesday.

"This is just a small correction, there is no turnaround in the trends. The firming really slowed down around 401 and it is obvious that the rate needs a new trigger to strengthen further," an FX trader in Budapest said.

Currencies and stocks in the region were boosted by a risk-on market mood after President Donald Trump announced last week that he had held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on possible talks on the war in Ukraine. U.S. and Russian officials met on Tuesday to discuss the topic.

A ceasefire or peace deal to end the war between Ukraine and Russia would be "net positive" for the currencies of nearby emerging economies, although much of that boost may already be factored in, investment bank JPMorgan said on Wednesday.

It added that outside Ukraine, Hungary and Turkey's currencies could be the biggest beneficiary if a ceasefire deal helps brings down European gas prices by allowing Russian gas to be bought more freely again.

The Polish EURPLN= edged up 0.1% to trade at 4.172 per euro, following a weakening in the previous session when it pulled back from its strongest level since February 2018 that it hit on Tuesday at 4.1485.

Besides technical reasons for the weakening, the lack of consistent declarations after Tuesday's U.S- Russia talks and the exclusion of European partners from the negotiating table caused disappointment in the markets, PKO Bank said in a note.

This "translated into increased risk aversion and weakening of the currencies of countries near the frontline, including the złoty," it said.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= slid 0.05% and traded at 25.11 to the euro.

Stocks gave up some of their recent gains, with Budapest .BUX leading losses as it shed 0.7%. Warsaw .WIG20 was 0.3% lower while Prague .PX slid 0.4%

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1055 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1100

25.0970

-0.05%

+0.39%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

402.7000

402.7000

+0.00%

+2.17%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.1720

4.1760

+0.10%

+2.51%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9773

4.9770

-0.01%

-0.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0800

117.1800

+0.09%

-0.11%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

1997.17

2005.0900

-0.39%

+13.46%

Budapest

.BUX

87989.84

88606.94

-0.70%

+10.92%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2628.26

2634.88

-0.25%

+19.90%

Bucharest

.BETI

17809.83

17855.96

-0.26%

+6.51%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5110

0.0190

+134bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7180

-0.0120

+139bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.1160

-0.0200

+156bps

-3bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.2760

-0.0430

+310bps

-5bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.5970

-0.0350

+327bps

-4bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8620

-0.0260

+331bps

-3bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.62

3.48

3.40

3.74

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.98

6.88

6.66

6.51

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.80

5.45

5.04

5.87

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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