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EMERGING MARKETS-Higher dollar weighs on FX; Russia-Ukraine talks on radar

ReutersFeb 18, 2025 10:53 AM
  • Russia-U.S. talks begin in Riyadh
  • South Africa's unemployment rate falls in Q4
  • China calls for tariff debate at WTO
  • MSCI FX off 0.1%, stocks advance 0.7%

By Purvi Agarwal

- A rising dollar pressured most emerging market currencies, though stocks gained on Tuesday, while investors remained focussed on talks between Russia and the U.S. that could bring an end to Moscow's war in Ukraine.

MSCI's index tracking global EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS retreated from an over three-month high, as the dollar index =USD moved higher after three consecutive sessions of declines.

However, the stocks index .MSCIEF has risen over 9.5% since January 13, as tech optimism around Chinese AI drove gains in Asian shares broadly, boosting the index.

Markets are watching a meeting between U.S. and Russian officials in Riyadh for the most significant talks to date on ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

Ukraine, which is not attending, says no peace deal can be made on its behalf, adding some uncertainty to the event.

The currency in Russia and bonds in Ukraine rallied last week on hopes of a peace deal after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had separate phone calls with Russian and Ukrainian leaders.

The Russian rouble RUB= was 0.4% higher on the day. Optimism around the peace talks also boosted European stock indexes broadly, with the ones in Poland .WIG20 trading at an over seven-year high. Prague stocks .PX pulled back slightly from a record high logged in the previous session.

"There are no guarantees that a deal will be reached to end the war during talks in Saudi Arabia. These do not include Ukraine, and some in Europe think that Trump's efforts will embolden Putin and could prolong the war," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

"We are still in the very early stages of any potential negotiations, updates from today's meetings will be worth watching closely."

Any comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to the Middle East will also be parsed through, including plans for Gaza made with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Israel's shekel IRS= was 0.2% lower, while stocks .TA125 were 0.6% higher.

Emerging Europe currencies were subdued against the euro EUR=.

South Africa's rand ZAR= gained 0.2% in choppy trading and stocks in the country .JTOPI were hovering near record highs. Data showed official unemployment rate in South Africa fell in the final three months of last year.

Meanwhile, tariff headlines have taken a backseat, with Trump providing a short respite, leaving room for negotiations.

China called for a debate at the World Trade Organization on "trade turbulence" and how the global trade watchdog should respond in an apparent reference to the tariffs.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** How a Moscow-linked influence campaign sought to erode German support for Ukraine

** Xi's new frontline corporate guard showcases his priorities, control

** Sri Lanka's budget likely to lead to slower fiscal consolidation, Moody's says

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

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