REFILE-BUZZ-COMMENT-Norway's crown stepping into a minefield

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Feb 12 (Reuters) - As the NOK appears to be turning lower following a three-week rally to key resistance, several factors and events could begin to stack up against it.

EUR/NOK peaked at 11.8260 in January and the pullback reached the 100-week moving average at 11.6020. The long-term average had supported the cross since October 2022 and despite a breach this week that major support point remains intact on a closing basis. A weekly hammer candlestick (bullish) is forming as the euro rallies away from an 11.5411 low and the 100-week average becomes support once more.

Away from the charts, fundamental factors could limit a NOK recovery and prevent a resumption of the short-term EUR/NOK bear run.

Inflationary policy from the Trump administration is likely to support U.S. yields and underpin both USD/NOK and EUR/NOK.

A three-day rally in the oil price has helped the crown as talk of the U.S. increasing sanctions against Iran supported crude prices. However, if the tariff war becomes more entrenched and global growth is impacted the demand for oil could slacken.

Despite a pick-up in Norway inflation the Norges Bank is expected to cut rates in March, potentially weakening the NOK, and a follow-up easing in June could add further pressure on the crown.

If EUR/NOK reverses course and heads higher there are Fibonacci retracement levels at 11.6565 and 11.6791, taken off the 11.8170-11.5411 January-February drop.

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