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CEE MARKETS-Forint and zloty slip as investors eye U.S. tariffs

ReutersJan 31, 2025 11:00 AM

- Central European currencies eased on Friday, with the forint and zloty pulling back from recent highs, as investors awaited updates on U.S. tariffs and the dollar edged higher.

Indexes of emerging market currencies and stocks were lower on Friday, with investors bracing for a Feb. 1 deadline for U.S. tariffs as a week marked by increasing trade tensions and a slew of central bank decisions drew to a close.

"Investors may be hesitant to take new positions in the dollar due to uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which would come into effect on February 1," Bank PKO BP analysts said in a note.

"Such a move would put downward pressure not only on the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar but also indirectly, through increased risk aversion, on the EM currency basket, including the zloty."

By 1027 GMT, the Polish zloty EURPLN= slipped 0.4% to 4.2190, giving back gains from earlier this week but remaining off its nearly seven-year high of 4.1975 hit on Thursday.

PKO BP analysts said they expected the Polish currency to stabilize into the weekend, but saw the higher risk of it weakening at the start of next week.

In Hungary, the forint EURHUF= also traded 0.4% lower to the euro at 408.50, after firming to a two-month high of 406.05 on Thursday.

Data on Friday showed Hungarian producer price inflation rising further in December to 9.0% from 7.9% a month earlier in annual terms.

"This may be key for EUR/HUF, which touched new lows near 406 yesterday and bounced somehow," ING analysts said in a note.

Further cracks in the disinflationary process would be negative news for Hungary's central bank and would reduce any chance of rate cuts this year, they added.

Elsewhere, preliminary data from the Czech Republic on Friday showed the economy growing by half a percent on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter of 2024, with domestic demand driving a modest recovery.

The expansion was the same as in the previous quarter, putting year-on-year gross domestic product growth at 1.6%, up from 1.4%. The data was exactly in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of analysts.

The Czech crown EURCZK= edged 0.1% lower to the euro, trading at 25.1360 and continuing its weakening since Tuesday.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1127 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1360

25.1210

-0.06%

+0.29%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

408.5000

406.9000

-0.39%

+0.72%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2190

4.2015

-0.41%

+1.37%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9763

4.9765

+0.00%

+0.00%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1100

117.1600

+0.04%

-0.14%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

1885.34

1883.9000

+0.08%

+7.11%

Budapest

.BUX

85623.67

85250.83

+0.44%

+7.94%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2434.61

2441.23

-0.27%

+11.07%

Bucharest

.BETI

17004.08

17013.03

-0.05%

+1.69%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4990

-0.0070

+136bps

+6bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.5700

-0.0140

+131bps

+4bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.9340

-0.0180

+145bps

+2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.2250

0.0130

+309bps

+8bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.6460

-0.0240

+338bps

+3bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8660

-0.0350

+339bps

+0bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.60

3.46

3.37

3.83

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.95

6.63

6.25

6.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.79

5.40

5.02

5.86

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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