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CEE MARKETS-Forint firms after central bank leaves base rate unchanged

ReutersJan 28, 2025 1:56 PM

Updates with Hungary central bank decision, trader comment

By Anita Komuves

- The Hungarian forint edged higher on Tuesday and stayed near a two-month high after the central bank left its base rate unchanged while the Polish zloty rose to its strongest versus the euro since 2018.

The forint EURHUF= firmed immediately after the National Bank of Hungary announced its decision and was up 0.22% versus the euro on the day, trading at 407.9 by 1327 GMT.

The NBH left its base rate at 6.5%, as widely expected, the joint highest level in the European Union amid concerns that a leadership change in March could lead to premature rate cuts to stimulate the sluggish economy ahead of a 2026 election.

"The forint firmed a bit after the bank's decision and could crawl a bit further after the press conference, but I do not think there will be a significant movement as I expect no surprises," an FX trader in Budapest said.

The bank will publish its statement and hold a press conference at 1400 GMT.

"Global inflation risks have not exactly diminished since Donald Trump took office, and officials will probably want to wait and see how the future head of the central bank wants to direct monetary policy," Commerzbank wrote in a note before the NBB's decision was announced.

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= added 0.13% and was trading at 4.2075 versus the euro after reaching its strongest level since 2018 at 4.2045 earlier in the day.

The Czech crown EURCZK= edged up 0.01% to 25.075 per euro, holding on to its gains from last week.

"The dollar firmed after Trump's latest tariff comments, but currencies in the region are stable, they got through it fine," another currency trader in Budapest said.

Central European markets were still affected by uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump's plans as tariffs could hit the region's export-dependent economies, traders and analysts said.

Trump said on Monday that he would impose tariffs on aluminium and copper as well as steel.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= added 0.13% and was trading at 4.2075 versus the euro after reaching its strongest level since 2018 at 4.2045 earlier in the day.

Stocks in the region were mixed, with Prague's index .PX sliding 0.37% while Budapest .BUX slid 0.1%. Warsaw .WIG20 gained 0.56%.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1427 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0750

25.0770

+0.01%

+0.53%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

407.9000

408.8000

+0.22%

+0.86%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2075

4.2130

+0.13%

+1.65%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9747

4.9740

-0.01%

+0.04%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0200

117.0800

+0.05%

-0.06%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

1864.11

1872.2500

-0.43%

+5.91%

Budapest

.BUX

84846.19

84963.95

-0.14%

+6.96%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2389.93

2376.40

+0.57%

+9.03%

Bucharest

.BETI

17046.03

16977.69

+0.40%

+1.95%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2390

-0.0070

+097bps

-3bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6390

0.0360

+128bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0300

0.0040

+147bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.2410

0.0310

+298bps

+1bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.6670

-0.0630

+330bps

-9bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.9320

-0.0430

+338bps

-7bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.62

3.46

3.38

3.84

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.94

6.77

6.55

6.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.78

5.44

5.10

5.86

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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