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CEE MARKETS-Forint firms ahead of central bank rate meeting

ReutersJan 28, 2025 9:45 AM

By Anita Komuves

- The Hungarian forint firmed on Tuesday, trading near a two-month high ahead of a meeting of the central bank where policymakers are widely expected to keep the base rate unchanged, while the Polish zloty kept trading at a near a seven-year high.

The forint EURHUF= was 0.18% up versus the euro, trading at 408.05 as it held on to its gains from the end of last week.

"The dollar firmed after Trump's latest tariff comments, but currencies in the region are stable, they got through it fine," an FX trader in Budapest said.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he would impose the tariffs on aluminium and copper as well as steel.

Uncertainty around Trump's trade and tariff plans has affected CEE currencies as tariffs could hit the region's export-dependent economies.

"But the fact that there were no immediate tariffs of 20%-30% on Europe helped the forint. Approving the rollover of sanctions on Russia also supported it, anything else would have made Hungary the troublemaker of Europe again," the trader said.

On Monday the European Union renewed its wide-ranging sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine, after Hungary stopped holding up the move in return for a declaration on energy security.

Investors also eyed a rate meeting of the National Bank of Hungary later in the day where the bank is widely expected to leave its base rate unchanged at 6.5% amid warnings of an inflation rebound and continued wobbles in the forint.

The bank will announce its rate decision at 1300 GMT, with a statement and press conference to follow at 1400 GMT.

"Global inflation risks have not exactly diminished since Donald Trump took office, and officials will probably want to wait and see how the future head of the central bank wants to direct monetary policy," Commerzbank wrote in a note.

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= added 0.12% and was trading at 4.208 versus the euro, at a nearly seven-year high.

The Czech crown EURCZK= edged down 0.04% to 25.088 per euro, holding on to its gains from last week.

Stocks in the region were mixed, with Prague's index .PX sliding 0.22% while Budapest .BUX added 0.13%. Warsaw .WIG20 gained 0.48%.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1027 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0880

25.0770

-0.04%

+0.48%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

408.0500

408.8000

+0.18%

+0.83%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2080

4.2130

+0.12%

+1.63%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9748

4.9740

-0.02%

+0.03%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0500

117.0800

+0.03%

-0.09%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

1868.09

1872.2500

-0.22%

+6.13%

Budapest

.BUX

85077.12

84963.95

+0.13%

+7.25%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2387.80

2376.40

+0.48%

+8.93%

Bucharest

.BETI

16929.21

16977.69

-0.29%

+1.25%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2390

-0.0070

+097bps

-3bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6390

0.0360

+128bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0390

0.0130

+149bps

-1bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.2410

0.0310

+297bps

+1bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.6910

-0.0390

+333bps

-6bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.9630

-0.0120

+341bps

-4bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.62

3.46

3.38

3.85

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.94

6.74

6.54

6.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.79

5.45

5.10

5.86

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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