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BUZZ-COMMENT-BOJ's hawkish hike may signal more frequent moves

ReutersJan 28, 2025 2:19 AM

- The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate Friday in an 8-1 vote, a more hawkish outcome than many expected. With Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasising the importance of upcoming data and wage talks, the BOJ could take a more aggressive stance depending on economic developments.

While Ueda cited uncertainties that might hamper or delay future interest rate hikes, these factors seem to be dissipating fast. U.S. President Donald Trump's policy comments suggest more bluster than substance, and any actual action on trade tariffs may not be the bogeyman for global growth that many envisioned.

Opposition to higher interest rates from the Ishiba government looks to be dissipating too with consumer inflation elevated and the inflationary effects of the still weak yen duly noted nL3N3ON1LP, nL3N3OK0HC, nIfpbQK4pr, nL3N3OI0T4, nP8N3NO05I.

By leaving open the possibility of further rate hikes, the BOJ will effectively provide a base for the yen and keep it from depreciating further, thereby reining in the currency's inflationary impact.

The Japanese economy will likely continue to chug along, showing moderate growth in line with the BOJ's economic assessment. Inflation has proven to be sticky however, and may exceed BOJ expectations especially if wage hikes this spring come in well above 5% nL3N3OI0C8.

Given all these factors, BOJ rate hikes this year may prove slightly more frequent than the six-month intervals many players expect. March may be too soon for another hike but May could well be in play.

On Friday's BOJ hike nL2N3OJ1BZ, nL3N3OK0LL, previous comment nL6N3OJ01I. For more click on FXBUZ

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