By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Central European currencies eased on Monday, but both the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint continued trading near recently hit highs as investors watched U.S. President Donald Trump for clues on his future trade and tariff policies.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= eased 0.22% versus the euro to trade at 408.8, giving up some gains from the previous session when it firmed to a more than two-month high.
"There was some profit-taking and rearranging of positions on Friday, that was the reason for the strengthening. It was not a new trend we saw, that's why we see some movement in the other direction now," an FX trader in Budapest said.
"It is a quiet day, but any news from Trump could move markets later this week," he said.
Uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and tariff plans has affected CEE currencies as tariffs could hit the region's export-dependent economies.
Investors were also eyeing a rate meeting of the National Bank of Hungary scheduled for Tuesday where the bank is widely expected to leave its base rate unchanged at 6.5% amid warnings of an inflation rebound and continued wobbles in the forint.
"If the NBH repeats its previously cautious tone, which is our baseline view, this should be confirmation for EUR/HUF to stabilise and potentially test lower levels," ING wrote in a client note.
"On the other hand, a pullback in the U.S. dollar should put pressure back on EM currencies and therefore we believe the current EUR/HUF lower levels are only temporary," they said.
The Polish zloty EURHUF= edged down 0.05% and was trading at 4.215 per euro, slightly off its strongest level since April 2018 that it hit on Friday.
The zloty has recently rallied as it was supported by a weaker dollar, the hawkish stance of the central bank, the prospect of a further inflow of funds from the EU, and positive economic data.
"In the markets, we are observing reduced concerns about the beginning of Trump's presidency, which would have negative consequences for Poland," Alior Bank wrote.
However, uncertainty around Trump's steps on possible tariffs and the war in Ukraine "persists, which may introduce volatility in investors' attitudes towards the zloty," they said.
Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= slid 0.04% to trade at 25.095 versus the euro.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1048 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0950 | 25.0850 | -0.04% | +0.45% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 408.8000 | 407.9000 | -0.22% | +0.64% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2150 | 4.2130 | -0.05% | +1.47% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9765 | 4.9755 | -0.02% | +0.00% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0500 | 117.0800 | +0.03% | -0.09% |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
| |||||
STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Prague | .PX | 1875.86 | 1885.4500 | -0.51% | +6.57% |
Budapest | .BUX | 85072.24 | 85171.51 | -0.12% | +7.24% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2352.99 | 2378.78 | -1.08% | +7.34% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 16905.36 | 17062.20 | -0.92% | +1.10% |
| |||||
BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2460 | -0.0260 | +100bps | +2bps |
Czech Rep 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6020 | -0.0260 | +130bps | +3bps |
Czech Rep 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0310 | -0.0190 | +154bps | +3bps |
Poland 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.2100 | -0.0050 | +297bps | +4bps |
Poland 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.6570 | -0.0710 | +335bps | -2bps |
Poland 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.9440 | -0.0260 | +345bps | +3bps |
| |||||
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | CZKFRA, PRIBOR= | 3.61 | 3.44 | 3.37 | 3.85 |
Hungary | HUFFRA, BUBOR= | 6.46 | 6.74 | 6.52 | 6.50 |
Poland | PLNFRA, WIBOR= | 5.80 | 5.43 | 5.07 | 5.88 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices |
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