tradingkey.logo

CEE MARKETS-Forint, zloty trade near recent highs as markets eye Trump's tariff plans

ReutersJan 27, 2025 10:15 AM

By Anita Komuves

- Central European currencies eased on Monday, but both the Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint continued trading near recently hit highs as investors watched U.S. President Donald Trump for clues on his future trade and tariff policies.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= eased 0.22% versus the euro to trade at 408.8, giving up some gains from the previous session when it firmed to a more than two-month high.

"There was some profit-taking and rearranging of positions on Friday, that was the reason for the strengthening. It was not a new trend we saw, that's why we see some movement in the other direction now," an FX trader in Budapest said.

"It is a quiet day, but any news from Trump could move markets later this week," he said.

Uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and tariff plans has affected CEE currencies as tariffs could hit the region's export-dependent economies.

Investors were also eyeing a rate meeting of the National Bank of Hungary scheduled for Tuesday where the bank is widely expected to leave its base rate unchanged at 6.5% amid warnings of an inflation rebound and continued wobbles in the forint.

"If the NBH repeats its previously cautious tone, which is our baseline view, this should be confirmation for EUR/HUF to stabilise and potentially test lower levels," ING wrote in a client note.

"On the other hand, a pullback in the U.S. dollar should put pressure back on EM currencies and therefore we believe the current EUR/HUF lower levels are only temporary," they said.

The Polish zloty EURHUF= edged down 0.05% and was trading at 4.215 per euro, slightly off its strongest level since April 2018 that it hit on Friday.

The zloty has recently rallied as it was supported by a weaker dollar, the hawkish stance of the central bank, the prospect of a further inflow of funds from the EU, and positive economic data.

"In the markets, we are observing reduced concerns about the beginning of Trump's presidency, which would have negative consequences for Poland," Alior Bank wrote.

However, uncertainty around Trump's steps on possible tariffs and the war in Ukraine "persists, which may introduce volatility in investors' attitudes towards the zloty," they said.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= slid 0.04% to trade at 25.095 versus the euro.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1048 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0950

25.0850

-0.04%

+0.45%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

408.8000

407.9000

-0.22%

+0.64%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2150

4.2130

-0.05%

+1.47%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9765

4.9755

-0.02%

+0.00%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0500

117.0800

+0.03%

-0.09%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

1875.86

1885.4500

-0.51%

+6.57%

Budapest

.BUX

85072.24

85171.51

-0.12%

+7.24%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2352.99

2378.78

-1.08%

+7.34%

Bucharest

.BETI

16905.36

17062.20

-0.92%

+1.10%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2460

-0.0260

+100bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6020

-0.0260

+130bps

+3bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0310

-0.0190

+154bps

+3bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.2100

-0.0050

+297bps

+4bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.6570

-0.0710

+335bps

-2bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.9440

-0.0260

+345bps

+3bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.61

3.44

3.37

3.85

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.46

6.74

6.52

6.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.80

5.43

5.07

5.88

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/
Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX=  Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX=          Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=
Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT   Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY  Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
Tradingkey

Related Articles

Tradingkey
KeyAI