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BUZZ-COMMENT-AUD/USD's bullish techs need validation from data, Fed

ReutersJan 23, 2025 3:33 PM

- AUD/USD held near its recent 2-1/2-week high and traded slightly higher Thursday, helping to underpin bullish technical signals, but investors are waiting for global economic data and the Fed meeting for those signals to be confirmed.

The recent tight ranges indicate AUD/USD is in a consolidation phase of the gains off the Jan. 13 daily low. Consolidation is a healthy development for trends and in this case it is a bullish indicator.

Other technical signals highlight upside risks for AUD/USD.

The 10-day moving average crossed above the 21-day moving average, the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders could be forming on daily charts, a monthly bull hammer is in place for January after AUD/USD neared the 76.4% Fib of the 0.5510-0.8007 rally and rising monthly RSI implies longer-term upward momentum is in place.

Investors will now focus on global PMIs for January many of which will be released Friday. Upside surprises could boost the Australian dollar on the view global growth is accelerating.

Next week's Fed meeting may also have a big impact on risk. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged so the statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will be key.

If a dovish hold is delivered the U.S. interest rate complex SRAM26, US2YT=RR could sink.

U.S. dollar selling might then ensue, which could rally AUD/USD towards 0.6450.

For more click on FXBUZ

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