tradingkey.logo

CEE MARKETS-Currencies steady, zloty holds gains as investors wait for Trump's plans

ReutersJan 23, 2025 9:27 AM

- Central European currencies were steady on Thursday with the Polish zloty holding on to the gains that drove it to nearly five-year highs the previous day, helped by a weakening dollar.

Stock markets were also subdued after rising earlier this week, with investors eyeing further clues on U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans. The dollar .DXY traded in narrow ranges against other major currencies on Thursday.

Adding to his threats on Chinese imports, Trump said Mexico and Canada could face levies of around 25% by Feb. 1. He also promised duties on European imports, without elaborating further. These tariffs could hurt Central Europe where car makers have been an important driver of economic growth.

"The zloty was supported by global factors in the form of a weaker U.S. dollar in recent days, but also by investors' growing appetite for risk, after a relatively calm start to Donald Trump's presidency compared to their previous expectations," PKO BP said in a note.

The zloty, which on Wednesday had firmed to 4.239 to the euro, its strongest since February 2020, was flat at 4.2265 EURPLN=.

Bank of America said in a note that the zloty should be supported by the weaker dollar, a hawkish central bank, and a positive current account and foreign investment inflows.

The zloty was the only central European currency to firm in 2024 as Poland's central bank held interest rates while others in the region eased policy.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF=, which was the region's laggard throughout 2024, eased 0.1% to 411.05 versus the euro, remaining vulnerable to changes in global sentiment after gaining earlier this week.

"The forint firmed past 411 to the euro, and we see a resistance level at between 411.50 and 412, while a support level is seen at around 409," brokerage Equilor said in a note.

Hungarian central bank Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag on Wednesday dismissed market concerns about fiscal loosening and easier monetary policy amid leadership changes this year as "not realistic", as he warned of a possible rise in 2025 inflation.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban nominated Finance Minister Mihaly Varga as Hungary's next central bank governor from March, turning to an ally as he seeks to revive the economy before a 2026 election.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was stable at 25.152 to the euro.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 0914 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1520

25.1500

-0.01%

+0.23%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

411.0500

410.5500

-0.12%

+0.09%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2265

4.2265

+0.00%

+1.19%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9755

4.9764

+0.02%

+0.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9800

117.1800

+0.17%

-0.03%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

1861.39

1862.3800

-0.05%

+5.75%

Budapest

.BUX

85209.68

85643.97

-0.51%

+7.42%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2361.16

2362.75

-0.07%

+7.72%

Bucharest

.BETI

17028.46

17028.46

+0.00%

+1.84%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2510

-0.0010

+103bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7160

NULL

+142bps

#VALUE!

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0360

-0.0070

+154bps

+0bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.1960

0.0050

+297bps

+2bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.6320

-0.0220

+333bps

-2bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.9150

0.0230

+342bps

+3bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.64

3.48

3.39

3.87

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.98

6.37

6.16

6.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.73

5.41

5.07

5.86

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/
Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX=  Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX=          Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=
Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT   Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY  Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
Tradingkey

Related Articles

Tradingkey
KeyAI