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CEE MARKETS-FX little changed as tariff uncertainty remains

ReutersJan 21, 2025 9:41 AM

- Central Europe's currencies were little changed on Tuesday in a muted reaction to Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency, getting some relief after his first moves did not include tariffs that could hit the region's economies.

Trump did not immediately impose tariffs on Monday as previously promised, but said he was thinking about imposing 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1.

Stock markets in central Europe were mixed, with Prague .PX leading gains with a 0.3% rise, while Warsaw .WIG20 fell 0.4%.

Central Europe's currencies have been mostly weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar in recent months and now face uncertainty over what policy promises Trump will follow through on in his first days and months in office.

Wide-reaching tariffs would be a drag on central Europe's export-dependent economies.

"Trump did not introduce trade tariffs on day one, and that helped emerging markets as well among others," a Budapest-based trader said. "Otherwise, markets are waiting to see what else is going to happen."

The Hungarian forint EURHUF=, central Europe's most battered currency in 2024 with a more than 6% loss, was down less than 0.1% at 411.65 to the euro at 0923 GMT, staying off a two-year low of 416.50 hit earlier in January.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was around a one-week high at 25.19 per euro, after falling last week to seven-week lows when below-forecast inflation data boosted expectations the central bank might restart a rate-cutting campaign when it next meets in February.

It also found support in the lack of U.S. tariff news, but bank CSOB said uncertainty would maintain pressure.

"It is still a question what the U.S. administration will bring in relation to (tariffs) in the coming days and weeks, especially in relation to the European Union and China," CSOB said.

Poland's zloty, which has been testing multi-year highs recently, eased 0.1% to 4.254 to the euro. The currency outperformed peers last year as Poland's central bank left rates unchanged while others in the region eased policy.

Analysts saw the zloty holding strong for now with improved emerging market sentiment. "But the potential for surprises is high," Bank Pekao said.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1023 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1900

25.1930

+0.01%

+0.08%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

411.6500

411.4000

-0.06%

-0.05%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2540

4.2500

-0.09%

+0.54%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9765

4.9769

+0.01%

+0.00%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0700

117.1200

+0.04%

-0.10%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

1864.67

1859.5100

+0.28%

+5.94%

Budapest

.BUX

85640.31

85903.48

-0.31%

+7.96%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2315.95

2324.80

-0.38%

+5.65%

Bucharest

.BETI

16882.38

16913.68

-0.19%

+0.97%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2670

-0.0060

+106bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7220

-0.0140

+144bps

-1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.1020

-0.0100

+162bps

+0bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.2650

-0.0400

+305bps

-3bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.7070

-0.0600

+342bps

-5bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.9570

-0.0220

+347bps

-1bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.69

3.54

3.47

3.88

Hungary

HUFFRA, BUBOR=

6.98

6.80

6.63

6.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

5.74

5.45

5.14

5.85

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest, and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw. Editing by Mark Potter)

((jason.hovet@thomsonreuters.com;))

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
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