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BUZZ-USD/JPY off with US yields, chance BOJ may hike

ReutersJan 16, 2025 12:11 AM

  • USD/JPY off yesterday, from 158.08 to as low as 155.93 EBS

  • Catalyst was BOJ Ueda talk that a rate hike would be debated next week

  • Tokyo still sees chance of hike less than 50-50 but weak longs stirred

  • Ueda-speak similar to Himino-speak Tuesday, debate on but no action?

  • Big drop in US rates post-CPI helped USD/JPY lower later

  • Yield on Treasury 2s 4.373% to 4.257%, 10s off more, 4.790% to 4.637%

  • US CPI post large gain but underlying inflation seen slowing? nL1N3OB0IY

  • USD/JPY bottom again around 156.00? Asia so far 156.23-48

  • USD/JPY move down likely to up demand from Japanese importers, investors

  • Plenty of recent lows in area including 155.97 Dec 20, 156.02 Dec 31

  • Break below 155.90 would take pair out of range seen since Dec 20

  • Ascending daily Ichimoku kijun 155.34, 55-DMA 154.62 below

  • Option expiries today include 156.00 $625 mln, 157.00 $1 bln

  • Related nL1N3OB0VA, nL1N3OB0BE, on BOJ nL1N3OB0EP, nL1N3O603N

  • Also nL1N3OB129, more on US CPI nL1N3OB0XO

  • US markets nL1N3OB0UL, nL1N3OB17W, nL4N3OB150, nL1N3OB0T2

  • Fed-speak nL1N3OB0YN, nL1N3OB0Q8, for more click on FXBUZ

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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