BUZZ-COMMENT-Hungry EUR/USD bears may slink back into hibernation

Jan 15 (Reuters) - After feasting in recent weeks, EUR/USD bears have missed a few meals more recently, and they might be tempted into hibernation unless sustenance arrives soon.

EUR/USD hit a five session high Wednesday after U.S. December CPI relieved some investors' concerns that prices would rise faster than estimates and also affirmed rates markets' expectations for the Fed to cut rates twice more in 2025 SRAM26.

The data sank the U.S. interest rate complex, which decreased the dollar's yield advantage over the euro as German-U.S. spreads US2DE2=RR and terminal rate spreads for the Fed SRAM26 and ECB FEIZ5 tightened.

EUR/USD rallied on the data and spread tightening and neared the down trend line off the Dec. 6 daily high.

Investors will now focus on U.S. December retail sales due Thursday and the Fed's favored pricing gauge December core PCE on Jan. 31.

Downside surprises to those data points could drive U.S. yields lower and raise the probability of the Fed cutting more than currently expected.

The dollar could fall sharply in such a scenario as German-U.S. spreads would probably tighten and clear structural resistance in the -205bps/-200bps zone.

EUR/USD might then become emboldened and charge through the down trend line off December's high as well as the trend line off the September 30 daily high.

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(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((christopher.romano@thomsonreuters.com;))