BUZZ-COMMENT-Multiple reasons why EUR/USD will likely drop to parity

Jan 9 (Reuters) - There is a combination of seasonal, fundamental and technical factors that could lead to bigger gains in the U.S. dollar which could send EUR/USD even lower in coming weeks.

EUR/USD seasonal performance since 2000 shows it has fallen in January for 16 of the past 25 years, or 64% of the time. Meanwhile in February it has dropped in 15 of the last 25 years. However, seasonality patterns should not be considered in isolation, they need to be corroborated with other factors.

The dollar has been underpinned by rising Treasury yields, putting the yen, sterling and euro under pressure near multi-month lows amid the shifting threat of tariffs. The greenback will tighten its stranglehold over global currency markets with little standing in the way of its remarkable run, and a significant number of foreign exchange forecasters polled by Reuters expect it to rise to parity with the euro in 2025.

If EUR/USD dives under the 1.0196 Fibonacci level, a 61.8% retrace of the 0.9528 to 1.1276 (2022-2023) EBS rise, that would expose 1.0000. Especially as the continued negative fourteen-week momentum reading points to bigger losses.

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(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((martin.miller@thomsonreuters.com))