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BUZZ-COMMENT-Swedish crown caught between growth and inflation

ReutersJan 3, 2025 8:13 AM

- A mixed Riksbank stance leaves the Swedish crown caught between economic stimulus and inflation concerns.

The crown has staged a strong recovery versus the euro since basing at 11.7105 in November, but the 2.6% positive trend might be weakening as the Riksbank's concern appears to have switched back to price pressures, having focused more on growth in recent months.

The minutes from the last central bank meeting, released Thursday, highlighted caution and the likelihood of just one more rate cut within the current easing cycle. While a steady interest rate stance would support the SEK it could also de-rail a recovery in the economy.

Swedish resource utilization is low, and the labour market remains weak, which argues for possibly two more rate cuts, in January and May. However, the central bank is less optimistic than analysts on the inflation outlook.

Overall, a wait-and-see approach from the Riksbank might lean on the crown and this, along with potential global trade friction under a Donald Trump administration, could inject a bid into EUR/SEK.

Initial EUR/SEK levels to watch are at 11.4140, Thursday's low, and 11.5569, December 24 high. A key resistance point sits at 11.5850, the high from December 3.

For more click on FXBUZ

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((peter.stoneham@thomsonreuters.com))

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