BUZZ-COMMENT-History shows USD/ZAR usually climbs in January

Jan 2 (Reuters) - History shows that the U.S. dollar usually climbs against the South African rand in January but FX traders need to closely watch potential bearish fundamental and technical factors to see if the pattern will hold in 2025.

USD/ZAR has risen in January for 17 of the past 25 years, or 68% of the time, highlighting a structural bullish bias, but the trend needs to be corroborated with other factors for it to be a useful tool.

The rand started the new year on a positive note on Thursday after a volatile end to 2024. Like most emerging market currencies, trade in the rand was turbulent in November and December after Donald Trump was elected U.S. president, amid uncertainty over his promised tariffs and other policies and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook.

While USD/ZAR's fourteen-week momentum reading is positive, last week's failure to sustain the break above 18.8112 Fibo - a 61.8% retrace of the 19.9075 to 17.0375 (2023-2024) drop - points to a possible top. That could lead to a breakdown of its positive seasonal trend in January.

USD/ZAR For more click on FXBUZ

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((martin.miller@thomsonreuters.com))