Eurozone flash inflation estimates for October showed a re-acceleration to 2.0%, which is understandably favouring a repricing to the hawkish side in the Euro (EUR) curve, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
EUR/USD is starting to look a bit expensive
“The OIS market now prices in 58bp of easing by the European Central Bank over December and January, with the chances of a half-size move in December now having been scaled back to just 22%.”
“There are no ECB speakers until Monday and today is a holiday in some eurozone markets, meaning potentially slightly reduced action in the euro markets.”
“EUR/USD is starting to look a bit expensive in the upper half of the 1.08-1.09 range, and barring a US jobs data-induced push today, we favour some depreciation in the pair into US Election Day, with a move back to 1.0800 as being completely in line with a wide rate differential in favour of USD.”
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