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AUD: RBA keeps May hike option open on Iran risk – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that RBA minutes show March’s back‑to‑back rate hike was a closer call than markets assumed. Board members agreed more tightening is needed but differed on timing, with the March move mainly aimed at preserving flexibility.
Fxstreet
Tue, Mar 31
ECB: War-driven energy shock shapes rate path – Nomura
Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak argues that March Euro area inflation will not significantly alter the ECB’s near-term policy stance. They expect policy rates to stay unchanged through Q4 2027, with the Iran war and its impact on Brent crude and energy prices now the key driver of ECB decisions.
Fxstreet
Tue, Mar 31
Fed: Balance sheet focus and rate-cut path – BNY
BNY’s Americas Macro Strategist John Velis discusses how Federal Reserve (Fed) balance sheet reduction is moving up the agenda, with officials like Kevin Warsh and Stephen Miran favoring a smaller footprint achieved mainly via lower reserves.Fxstreet
Tue, Mar 31
German Retail Sales decline unexpectedly by 0.6% MoM vs. estimates of 0.2% growth
German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, declines again in February. The consumer spending measure contracts 0.6% Month-on-month (MoM), according to official data released by Destatis, while it was expected to have grown 0.2%.Fxstreet
Tue, Mar 31
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