Japanese bond yields surge on inflation concerns, BOJ signals

By Satoshi Sugiyama

TOKYO, March 27 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond yields rose across the curve on Friday, as recent hawkish central bank signals and the Middle East war heightened inflation concerns and prompted investors to reprice the path of rate hikes.

The two-year yield JP2YTN=JBTC, the tenor most sensitive to Bank of Japan policy rates, rose 4.5 basis points to 1.38%, the highest since May 1995. Its five-day increase was the largest since the week ended October 10, 2008.

The five-year yield JP5YTN=JBTC rose 8.0 bps to a record 1.820%, while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield JP10YTN=JBTC increased 11 bps to 2.380%, a two-month high. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

The BOJ said on Thursday its index of core consumer prices rose 2.2% in February, releasing the gauge for the first time in what analysts say is an effort to show underlying inflation is setting the stage for further rate hikes.

"The central bank probably wanted to send a message to the market that it is ready to raise rates when needed regardless of the market condition," said Miki Den, a senior Japan rate strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

The BOJ's revised output gap data, also released on Thursday, showed demand exceeded supply capacity for a 15th straight quarter, pointing to a greater likelihood of rising prices.

With no end in sight for the war in Iran and its impact on imported energy prices, the BOJ data suggests inflationary pressures may persist, prompting investors to be more cautious on bonds, said Ryutaro Kimura, senior fixed-income strategist at AXA Investment Managers.

The 20-year JGB yield JP20YTN=JBTC climbed 15.5 bps to 3.275%, the highest since January. The 30-year yield JP30YTN=JBTC added 19 bps to 3.710%. The yield on the 40-year JGB JP40YTN=JBTC, Japan's longest tenor, rose 21 bps to 3.915%.

Super-long JGB yields are facing particularly upward pressure because demand is decreasing among life insurers and other traditional buyers, and there are concerns that the government may discourage rate hikes by the BOJ, Kimura said.

"The market may revise up expectations for the terminal rate and for inflation further out, which could explain why the yield curve reaction in Japan is bear steepening, unlike in the U.S. and Europe," he said.