POLL-Mexico inflation likely rose in early March, supporting rate hold

MEXICO CITY, March 23 (Reuters) - Mexico's inflation likely rose in the first half of March to levels not seen since mid-2025, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, backing the view that the central bank will keep its interest rate unchanged at its meeting this week.

The median forecast of 17 analysts surveyed estimated that headline consumer prices likely rose to 4.33% year-on-year. Core inflation is likely to remain stable at 4.48%. Official data will be released on Tuesday.

Much of the market expects Mexico's central bank to keep its benchmark rate at 7% in its announcement on Thursday, after halting a series of 12 consecutive cuts in February, according to another Reuters poll.

However, a significant minority of analysts, including major firms such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, expect the cycle of monetary easing to resume with a 25-basis-point cut.

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks kept interest rates unchanged. They said they were prepared to counter any impact on inflation from the conflict in the Middle East with a more restrictive monetary policy.

Bank of Mexico Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath, who has voted against the Bank of Mexico’s latest rate cuts, recently said the central bank should extend its monetary pause this week.