FACTBOX-Major brokerages see ECB rate hikes, postpone BoE cuts as inflation risks rise
March 23 (Reuters) - Global brokerages are increasingly betting the European Central Bank could raise rates as early as April, while pushing back rate-cut expectations for the Bank of England, after policymakers warned the Middle East war is stoking inflation risks.
Wall Street giants such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays also flagged significant risks of a near-term rate hike, potentially as early as April, from the BoE if global energy prices continue to climb, while J.P. Morgan has priced in rate hikes from the central bank in April and July this year.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for ECB:
Brokerage | Pre-meeting policy outlook | Post-meeting policy outlook | Terminal rate by year-end 2026 |
Goldman Sachs | Hold throughout 2026 | 2 hikes in April and June | 2.5% |
J.P.Morgan | Hold throughout 2026 | 2 hikes in April and July | 2.5% |
Morgan Stanley | Hold throughout 2026 | 2 hikes in June and September | 2.5% |
Barclays | Hold throughout 2026 | 2 hikes in April and June | 2.5% |
Deutsche Bank | Hold throughout 2026 | 2 hikes in June and September | 2.5% |
HSBC | Hold throughout 2026 | Hold throughout 2026 | 2.0% |
BofA Global Research | Hold throughout 2026 | Hold throughout 2026 | 2.0% |
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for BoE:
Brokerage | Pre-meeting policy outlook | Post-meeting policy outlook | Terminal rate by year-end 2026 |
J.P. Morgan | Hold rates in 2026 | Rate hike in April and July | 4.25% |
Deutsche Bank | 2 cuts (June and Q4) | Nil | 3.75% |
Morgan Stanley | 2 cuts (April and November) | Nil | 3.75% |
Citigroup | 2 cuts (June and September) | Nil | 3.75% |
Goldman Sachs | Quarterly cuts from July | Nil | 3.75% |
BNP Paribas | Nil | Nil | 3.75% |
BofA Global Research | 2 cuts (June and September) | 2 cuts (June and September) | 3.25% |
Barclays | Cuts in Q2 | Cuts in Q2 | - |
Standard Chartered | Cuts in Q2 | Cuts in Q2 | - |
UBS Global Research | 2 cuts (April and July) | 1 cut (November) | 3.50% |
