What to Watch in the Week Ahead and on Monday, March 23

ON MONDAY

The U.S. Census Bureau is expected to release January construction spending data, which is forecast to have increased 0.1% after rising 0.3% in the previous month. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February is also due.

CERAWeek 2026 is set to begin. The conference will bring together global leaders to discuss ideas, insights, and solutions to the biggest challenges facing the environment, the future of energy and climate.

Elsewhere, Mexico will release retail sales data for January.

LIVECHAT-REUTERS GLOBAL MARKETS FORUM
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, will discuss escalation risks, sanctions pressure points and diplomatic pathways at a time of heightened tensions in the Gulf and oil markets. Vaez, who worked on Iran nuclear diplomacy during the 2015 deal, will assess the outlook for a potential deal, the durability of sanctions, and the implications of rising geopolitical tensions for global energy markets (1000/1400).
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REST OF THE WEEK

Several data releases are expected through the week. On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics due to release labor productivity data, which is likely to show productivity increased 2% during the fourth quarter, after rising 2.8% in the prior period. The bureau is also due to release fourth-quarter unit labor cost data, which is expected to show a 3.4% rise after a 2.8% gain in the previous quarter. S&P Global is also scheduled to release March PMI data that day, with manufacturing expected at 51 and services at 51.7.

On Wednesday, the bureau is scheduled to release export and import data for February and current account data for the fourth quarter.

On Thursday, the Labor Department is due to release its weekly jobless claims report. Initial claims for unemployment benefits likely rose by 5,000 to 210,000 for the week ended March 21. The department will also issue continued jobless claims data for the week ended March 14.

On Friday, University of Michigan is expected to release consumer sentiment data for March, with a likely reading of 53.8.

On the economic front, the Federal Reserve Board is set to hold a hybrid public outreach meeting on Thursday as part of its review of regulations under the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act (1330/1730). Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is scheduled to give introductory remarks before the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, on Friday (1130/1530).

On the companies front, a California federal judge is set to hear oral arguments in a lawsuit by Anthropic on Tuesday challenging the Pentagon's designation of the artificial intelligence lab as a national security supply chain risk. On Friday, cruise operator Carnival Corp is expected to post first-quarter results. Investors will look out for comments on the impact of rising economic uncertainty on demand, pricing, impact of the ongoing U.S.- Iran conflict, labor and fuel costs, as well as annual forecasts.

Canada's Department of Finance is due to issue January's budget balance data on Friday. On Thursday, average weekly earnings data for January is expected.

In Latin America, Mexico is expected to release January economic activity data, measured by IGAE, in Tuesday, along with first-half March inflation data. It will also report February trade balance figures and the jobless rate, followed by its interest rate decision on Thursday, when the key rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7%. Brazil is expected to report foreign exchange flows data for the week ended March 20 and March consumer confidence data on Wednesday, followed by IPCA-15 inflation data and February current account, foreign direct investment and unemployment data on Friday. Chile's central bank is also expected to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, while Argentina is due to release January economic activity data and fourth-quarter current account figures on Wednesday.