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ECB to start lifting rates as soon as April on inflation pressures, brokerages say

ReutersMar 20, 2026 7:28 AM

- J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Barclays expect the European Central Bank to hike interest rates in 2026, a sharp shift from their previous forecasts for rates to remain on hold, as policymakers flagged rising inflation risks from the Middle East war.

Barclays and J.P. Morgan expect a rate hike in the ECB's April policy meeting, followed by further increases in June and July, respectively.

Morgan Stanley expects 25-basis-point hikes each in June and September.

The sudden shift comes after the ECB kept its key interest rate steady at 2% on Thursday, but policymakers expect to discuss hikes in the coming months as the Iran war threatens to push up inflation in the euro zone.

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