FACTBOX-Wall Street brokerages pencil in mid‑2026 Fed rate cuts

ReutersFeb 6, 2026 1:58 PM

Feb 6 (Reuters) - Major brokerages including Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Morgan Stanley expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver its next interest rate cut in June while J.P. Morgan sees the next move as a hike in 2027.

With the federal government reopening after a partial shutdown that delayed key economic releases, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday that January's jobs report will be released next week.

Last month, the Fed's rate-setting committee left interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% as expected. Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would be data-dependent, and the upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment had diminished.

Traders are betting on an over 80% chance for the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its March policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:

Brokerage	Total cuts in 2026	No. of cuts in 2026	Fed Funds Rate
Citigroup	75 bps	3 (in March, July and September)	2.75-3.00%
Goldman Sachs	50 bps	2 (in June and September)	3.00-3.25%
Morgan Stanley	50 bps	2 (in June and September)	3.00-3.25%
BofA Global Research	50 bps	2 (in June and July)	3.00-3.25%
Wells Fargo	50 bps	2 (in March and June)	3.00-3.25%
Nomura	50 bps	2 (in June and September)	3.00-3.25%
Barclays	50 bps	2 (in June and December)	3.00-3.25%
UBS Global Research	50 bps	2 (July and October)	3.00-3.25%
UBS Global Wealth Management	25 bps	in Q1	-
Deutsche Bank	25 bps	1 (in September)	3.25-3.50%
BNP Paribas	No rate cuts	-	3.50-3.75%
HSBC	No rate cuts	-	3.50-3.75%
J.P.Morgan	No rate cuts	-	3.50-3.75%
Standard Chartered	No rate cuts	-	3.50-3.75%
Macquarie	Rate hike	Q4	-

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