POLL-Mexican economy seen rebounding in Q4, driven by industry and services

MEXICO CITY, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Mexico's economy likely recovered in the final quarter of 2025 after contracting in the third quarter, propelled by growth in industrial activity and services, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

The median forecast from 18 economists projected a seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product expansion of 0.6% from the previous quarter, a turnaround from the 0.3% contraction reported in the third quarter.

Should this figure be confirmed when Mexico's statistics agency INEGI releases preliminary GDP data on Friday, it would mark the strongest quarterly performance for Latin America's second-largest economy since the July-September period of 2024.

Last week, a leading indicator for economic activity, the IOAE, estimated that Mexico's economy accelerated 2.3% in December from a year earlier and 0.2% from the previous month, following an unexpected contraction in November.

The likely December rebound was driven by gains in secondary activities — which include manufacturing, mining and construction — and tertiary activities, which cover services, according to the IOAE.

On an annual basis, GDP is also expected to have rebounded by 1.3% in the fourth quarter, after a 0.1% year-on-year decline in the third quarter.