BREAKINGVIEWS-India's courting of Chinese capital has limits

By Shritama Bose

MUMBAI, Jan 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China-India ties are beginning to thaw. New Delhi may lift a five-year-old ban on companies from the People's Republic bidding for official contracts to revive commercial ties with its neighbour. That potentially paves the way to further lift curbs on Chinese investments too, but any easing will be capped by both sides.

India is planning to scrap restrictions, imposed after a deadly 2020 border clash, on Chinese bidders in government infrastructure and other projects, Reuters reported on January 8, citing sources. Alongside smoother visa approvals, it signals willingness to reciprocate China's gradual easing of export curbs on rare earth magnets after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China in September.

The urgency to go further is rising. Net foreign direct investment into the country fell in the year to March 2025, though that is starting to pick up. Even so, strained bilateral ties with Washington mean the $4 trillion economy is grappling with a 50% tariff on exports to the United States, its top trading partner.

Moreover, despite border tensions, India's trade deficit with China has doubled over the last five years to $99 billion for the year ended March 2025. Under the current policy of applying extra scrutiny on Chinese-origin investments, the approval rate is just 15%, a person familiar with the matter told Breakingviews, implying a decent pipeline of investments waiting in the wings.

An easy place to start would be in manufacturing. Local smartphone operations from Apple AAPL.O to Xiaomi 1810.HK, for example, rely on mostly low-tech machinery, chips, displays, batteries and other inputs imported from China. Allowing some of those suppliers to set up factories in India makes sense. The same is true for textiles and plastics.

Yet trust issues persist. New Delhi is unlikely to open the floodgates in strategic sectors where it wants to protect its own domestic firms. In solar power, Adani Enterprises ADEL.NS has invested huge sums but remains highly dependent on Chinese panel makers. That might open a door for firms like JinkoSolar JKS.N and Longi Green Energy 601012.SS to establish a toehold in the market.

But in other areas like electric vehicles, India's appetite for Chinese investments will reach its limits. The $120 billion BYD 002594.SZ is hoping to manufacture in India but faces opposition from established groups like Mahindra & Mahindra MAHM.NS and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles TAMO.NS.

Officials might demand BYD build its marques and batteries from scratch locally, potentially in partnership with an Indian group. That would require a degree of technology transfer that Chinese firms are unlikely to agree to: Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing sources, that Reliance Industries RELI.NS has paused plans to build lithium-ion batteries after it failed to license technology from Xiamen Hithium Energy, which the Indian group denies.

India's courting of Chinese capital only goes so far.

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CONTEXT NEWS

India's Ministry of Finance plans to scrap five-year-old restrictions on Chinese firms bidding for government contracts, Reuters reported on January 8, citing two unnamed official sources.

New Delhi is weighing a proposal to exempt offshore investments for holdings of up to 26% in local companies from additional screening requirements introduced in 2020, Mint newspaper reported on January 1, citing two unnamed people familiar with the matter. The exemption will apply as long as the foreign entity exercises no management control and holds no seat on the company’s board, the report added.