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US rate futures slightly raise odds of January cut after CPI data

ReutersDec 18, 2025 1:51 PM

- Futures on the federal funds rate factored in a slightly increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting in January, after data showing U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in the year to November.

Traders were assigning a 28.8% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut in January, up from 26.6% just before the inflation figures.

For 2026, traders were betting on about 64 basis points of easing, compared with 63 bps before the inflation data, LSEG data showed.

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