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FACTBOX-Major brokerages divided over Fed's December rate decision following jobs data

ReutersNov 28, 2025 11:32 AM

- Global brokerages remain split on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting, as mixed signals on job growth and unemployment earlier this month clouded economic outlook.

J.P.Morgan joined major brokerages such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, saying it expects a quarter-point interest rate cut from the central bank next month following remarks from policymakers hinting at lowering borrowing costs.

Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, withdrew their expectations of an interest rate cut after the jobs report.

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet in Washington on December 9 and 10 for the last policy meeting of this year.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for December policy meeting:

Brokerage

December policy meeting

Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025)

Citigroup

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Wells Fargo

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Goldman Sachs

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

J.P.Morgan

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Barclays

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Nomura

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Morgan Stanley

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Deutsche Bank

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

BofA Global Research

No cut

3.75-4.00%

BNP Paribas

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

HSBC

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Standard Chartered

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Macquarie

No cut

3.75-4.00%

UBS Global Research

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

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