
Nov 21 (Reuters) - Global brokerages are divided on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will opt for an interest rate cut in its December meeting or keep policy rates unchanged, as mixed signals on job growth and unemployment earlier this week cloud the outlook.
Morgan Stanley , J.P. Morgan and Standard Chartered have dropped expectations for a December Fed rate cut, while Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and HSBC still see a quarter point-cut but note odds of a hold have risen sharply.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for December policy meeting:
Brokerage | December policy meeting | Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025) |
Citigroup | 25 bps
| 3.00-3.25% (March 2026) |
Wells Fargo
| 25 bps | 3.50-3.75% |
Goldman Sachs
| 25 bps | 3.50-3.75% |
J.P.Morgan
| No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
Barclays
| 25 bps | 3.50-3.75% |
Nomura
| No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
Morgan Stanley
| No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
Deutsche Bank
| 25 bps | 3.50-3.75% |
BofA Global Research | No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
BNP Paribas | 25 bps
| 3.50-3.75% |
HSBC | 25 bps
| 3.50-3.75% |
Standard Chartered | No cut | 3.75-4.00% |
Macquarie | 25 bps (by Q1 2026) | 3.50-3.75% |
UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group