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FACTBOX-Major brokerages divided over Fed's next move following jobs data

ReutersNov 21, 2025 3:31 PM

- Global brokerages are divided on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will opt for an interest rate cut in its December meeting or keep policy rates unchanged, as mixed signals on job growth and unemployment earlier this week cloud the outlook.

Morgan Stanley , J.P. Morgan and Standard Chartered have dropped expectations for a December Fed rate cut, while Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and HSBC still see a quarter point-cut but note odds of a hold have risen sharply.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for December policy meeting:

Brokerage

December policy meeting

Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025)

Citigroup

25 bps

3.00-3.25% (March 2026)

Wells Fargo

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Goldman Sachs

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

J.P.Morgan

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Barclays

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Nomura

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Morgan Stanley

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Deutsche Bank

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

BofA Global Research

No cut

3.75-4.00%

BNP Paribas

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

HSBC

25 bps

3.50-3.75%

Standard Chartered

No cut

3.75-4.00%

Macquarie

25 bps (by Q1 2026)

3.50-3.75%

UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

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