Major brokerages expect Fed to cut rates again in December

ReutersOct 31, 2025 2:48 PM

Oct 31 (Reuters) - Major brokerages expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver a single 25-basis-point interest rate cut at its final policy meeting in December.

The Fed on Wednesday cut rates by 25 bps, as expected, to cushion job market weakness, but flagged that missing data from the government shutdown could prompt more cautious policymaking.

Following decision, Nomura said it expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its December policy meeting. But other brokerages still see another round of easing by the end of the year.

Traders are now pricing in a 67.9% chance of a December cut, according to LSEG data.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025:

Brokerage	Total cuts in 2025	No. of more cuts in 2025	Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025)
Citigroup	25 bps	1	3.00-3.25% (March 2026)
Wells Fargo	25 bps	1	3.50-3.75%
Goldman Sachs	25 bps	1	3.50-3.75%
J.P.Morgan	25 bps	1	3.50-3.75%
Barclays	25 bps	1	3.50-3.75%
Nomura	0 bps	no cut	3.75-4.00%
Morgan Stanley	25 bps	1	3.50-3.75%
Deutsche Bank	25 bps	1	3.50-3.75%
BofA Global Research	0 bps	no cut	3.75-4.00%
UBS Global Research	50 bps(by Q1 2026)	1	3.25-3.50% (by Q1 2026)
BNP Paribas	25 bps	1	3.50-3.75%
HSBC	25 bps	1	3.50-3.75%
UBS Global Wealth Management	50 bps(by Q1 2026)	1	3.25-3.50% (by Q1 2026)
Standard Chartered	25 bps	1	3.50-3.75%

UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

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