Former heads of US Bureau of Labor Statistics say Trump's attacks erode trust in data

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's unwarranted attacks on the integrity of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics were undermining trust in economic data and had accelerated retirements of key personnel at the agency, former BLS commissioners said on Wednesday.

During a discussion at the libertarian Cato Institute, Erica Groshen and William Beach, who headed the agency under presidents of both parties, said the BLS had lost 12 of its 35 senior leaders. The agency produces the closely watched employment and inflation reports among others.

Trump has repeatedly criticized the agency, claiming without evidence that it was faking the jobs numbers.

"Trust ... for statistical agencies, it is mission critical. Unwarranted attacks on the integrity of BLS and the other parts of the statistical system will do lasting damage until trust is rebuilt," said Groshen. "So this is a bad place for the agencies, and we need to recover from it. I trust that the more informed and sober minds in our country will work hard to repair that damage."

In August, Trump abruptly fired Erika McEntarfer following sharp downward revisions to the nonfarm payrolls counts for June and July. McEntarfer had been appointed in 2024 by former President Joe Biden to lead the BLS.

Trump nominated conservative economist E.J. Antoni to head the agency before withdrawing the nomination last week.

Attacks on the agency, together with Trump's push to shrink the size of the federal government workforce, have prompted early retirements by experienced employees at the BLS and other government statistical agencies.

Statistical agencies, which include the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau, are said to have no less than 20% vacancy rates.

MODERNIZING THE COLLECTION OF DATA IMPORTANT

"Let's just say it was a well meaning attack, when that was done, there should have been, or before that was done, some thought to the infrastructure in the agency," said Beach.

"This is like building a bridge, and if your key construction workers and architects are suddenly missing because they have lost heart in the project, that bridge is very likely not to be as strong a bridge or as useful to the public."

The revisions to the jobs numbers are not unique to the Trump administration, with Groshen noting they also caused heartburn for former President Barack Obama.

They have been blamed on the low response rate by businesses to the establishment survey from which nonfarm payrolls are derived as well as the "birth-and-death" model, a method the BLS uses to try to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month.

The former commissioners suggested modernizing data collection using the internet as part of the solution, noting some countries have gone that route with successful results.

"It turns out response rates are much higher if you have an internet interface for doing this. But it's not trivial to move a survey to that platform," said Groshen.

"You have to do a lot of experimentation, but when we get there, response rates will probably go way up. The cost per response will be much lower, and then you'll have the resources to go after the people who are really hard to get."