Russian drone incursions suspected into Poland, breaching NATO airspace – Reuters

FXStreetSep 10, 2025 1:51 AM

Reuters reported early Wednesday that Poland placed its air defenses on high alert after Ukraine’s Air Force warned of a suspected Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace, breaching the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace.

Poland's operational command said in a post on X: “Attention, on the night of September 9-10, 2025, the Russian Federation will carry out further massive strikes on facilities located on the territory of Ukraine. To ensure the safety of Polish airspace, the Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces has activated all necessary procedures.”

US Representative Joe Wilson also posted on X, noting that Russia had attacked Poland, a NATO member, using Iranian-made Shahed drones, calling it “an act of war” and urging US President Donald Trump to respond with mandatory sanctions on Russia.

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding its recovery momentum at the time of writing, up 0.05% on the day at 97.85.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

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