US employment growth through March revised sharply lower

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the government said on Tuesday, suggesting that job growth was already stalling before President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports.

Economists had estimated that the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics could revise the level of employment from April 2024 through March 2025 down by between 400,000 and 1 million jobs. The level of employment for the 12 months through March 2024 was downgraded by 598,000 jobs.

The reading is a preliminary estimate of the BLS' annual "benchmark" revision to closely watched payrolls data. Once a year, the BLS compares its non-farm payrolls data, based on monthly surveys of a sample of employers, with a much more complete database of unemployment insurance tax records, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data.

A final benchmark revision will be released in February along with the BLS' employment report for January. Government statisticians will use the final benchmark count to revise payroll data for the months prior to and after March.

The payrolls benchmark revision followed on the heels of news last Friday that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy shed jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years.

In addition to being hobbled by uncertainty stemming from trade policy, the labor market has also been pressured by the White House's immigration crackdown, which has undercut labor supply. A shift by businesses to artificial intelligence tools and automation also is curbing demand for workers.

Economists saw little impact from the employment growth revision on monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve expected to resume cutting interest rates next Wednesday after pausing its easing cycle in January because of uncertainty over the impact of tariffs.

'ACCURATE, INDEPENDENT AND TRUSTED'

The monthly employment report is based on data derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, which surveys about 121,000 businesses and government agencies, representing about 631,000 individual worksites. The QCEW data is derived from reports by employers to the state unemployment insurance programs, and represents about 95% of total employment.

Sharp downgrades last month to May and June employment figures totaling 258,000 jobs angered Trump, who fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her, without evidence, of faking the employment data. Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni to replace McEntarfer. Antoni, who has penned opinion pieces critical of the BLS and even suggested suspending the monthly employment report, is viewed as unqualified by economists across the political spectrum.

The National Association for Business Economics on Monday urged "policymakers, business leaders, and the economics community to stand with BLS and ensure that America's statistics remain accurate, independent, and trusted worldwide."

Economists have attributed the revisions to the "birth-and-death" model, a method the BLS uses to try to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month. These companies are not initially available for sampling.