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INSTANT VIEW-Canada's annual inflation rate eases to 1.7% in July

ReutersAug 19, 2025 12:57 PM

- Canada's annual inflation fell to 1.7% in July from 1.9% in the prior month as lower year-on-year gasoline prices kept the consumer price index low, data showed on Tuesday.

Market reaction: CAD/

Link: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250819/dq250819a-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=3665-1&indgeo=0

COMMENTARY

ROBERT BOTH, MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES

"For us, I think the more impactful bit of the report is that deceleration in three-month rates of core CPI. So even with CPI-trim and median still running near 3% year-over-year, the bank has put a little more weight on those three-month core rates. We do see a sharp move in underlying momentum and with that momentum starting to emerge to the downside we think that does keep the path open to a September rate cut."

ANDREW GRANTHAM, SENIOR ECONOMIST, CIBC CAPITAL MARKETS

"An easing in inflationary pressures during July means that we have successfully cleared one obstacle on the path towards a potential September interest rate cut."

"While there is still a lot more data to be released between now and the mid-September BoC meeting, including another CPI release, today's release is supportive of our current call for a 25 bp (basis point) reduction at that time."

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