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Brazil jobless rate falls to record low, beats forecasts

ReutersJul 31, 2025 2:29 PM

- Brazil's jobless rate came in below market expectations in the three months through June, reaching the lowest level for the current data series which started in 2012, reinforcing the job market's resilience amid tight monetary policy.

Unemployment in Latin America's largest economy hit 5.8%, statistics agency IBGE said on Thursday, down from the 7.0% in the previous rolling quarter and below the 6.0% expected in a Reuters poll of economists.

The employed population rose 1.8% from the previous rolling quarter, reaching a record of 102.3 million people, IBGE said.

"The sharp growth in the employed population in the quarter influenced several records in the historical series, including the lowest unemployment rate," IBGE survey coordinator Adriana Beringuy said in a statement.

Brazil's jobless rate has been around historically low levels for months, which on the one hand supports economic growth, but on the other fuels inflationary concerns.

On Wednesday, the monetary authority kept interest rates unchanged at 15%, the highest level since July 2006, while the latest inflation reading at 5.30% remained above the central bank target of 3%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

The unemployment numbers reinforce the monetary authority's recent cautious bias, Pantheon Economics Chief Latam Economist Andres Abadia said in a note.

"The still-strong labor market points to persistent services inflation and limited slack, supporting the case for a prolonged monetary policy pause," he said, adding that tight financial conditions are set to weigh on employment ahead.

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